The Impact of the Zangezur Corridor on the Geopolitical Weight of Iran

Introduction: To achieve greater geopolitical weight in the region, Iran has always been sensitive to developments in independent countries, especially the countries of the South Caucasus region, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, one important geopolitical area that emerged after the 44-day war in 2020 and that, if developed, would affect Iran's interests, is the Zangezur Corridor. The Zangezur Corridor is a key strategic space that provides the Republic of Azerbaijan with access to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in accordance with Article 9 of the Moscow Tripartite Agreement. This access allows for the connection of Turkic-populated territories. The changing geopolitical conditions of today's world, especially after the outbreak of Russia's war with Ukraine, coupled with energy challenges in Europe and global geoeconomic imperatives, make this key piece essential and significant.
Research question: What are the impacts of the construction of the Zangezur Corridor and what impact does it have on Iran's geopolitical weight?
Research hypothesis: It seems that the construction of the Zangezur Corridor in Syunik Province will have consequences for Iran in the political, economic and military sectors.
Methodology: This article is of an applied type with a qualitative methodology and descriptive-analytical approach, conducted through a targeted snowball interview. In this process, the main themes of this article were analyzed using the content and graphs were extracted using Max QDA software. The statistical population includes experts who have sufficient knowledge of issues related to the Karabakh war and the Zangezur Corridor and have the necessary knowledge of its status and activities. The sample size is 11 commanders, professors of military and civilian universities, specialists and experts in the field of geopolitics and international relations.
Results and discussion: The Zangezur Corridor is a project whose geopolitical and geostrategic importance was highlighted years ago, even before the conflict began in 2020. In addition to regional countries, trans-regional powers have also acknowledged the importance and role of this corridor. For example, in 2012, the US Strategic Intelligence Publishing Company prepared a report on this subject. The report stated that whoever controls this Corridor could increase Turkiye's geopolitical sphere of influence in Anatolia and Russia's sphere of influence in the Caucasus and gain influence in the region. With the outbreak of the conflict between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, the Iranian government responded positively to the annexation of the Karabakh region to the Republic of Azerbaijan in its political strategy but announced its opposition to the establishment of the Zangezur corridor in the Syunik province of Armenia to establish a land connection between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. In a meeting with Turkish President Erdogan, the Iranian supreme leader announced that Iran will not allow the thousands-year-old border between Iran and Armenia to be cut or closed. Based on the research and interviews with academic and military experts in this field, the construction of the Zangezur Corridor is directly related to the weakening of Iran's geopolitical weight. The geopolitical effect of the construction of this Corridor is the cutting of international borders, which is not in Iran’s interest. Given that the main nature of this corridor is to connect the main territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan region, and the first effect of this corridor is to cut the border between Iran and Armenia in terms of neighborhood, if Iran's communication routes with Armenia are blocked, Iran's dependence on the Republic of Azerbaijan in terms of communication routes with the Caucasus region will increase. This will further strengthen the alliance between Turkiye and the Republic of Azerbaijan and prevent Iran from playing a strategic role in the geopolitical region of the Caucasus and Anatolia and these conditions will create the basis for the encirclement of Iran by some extra-regional countries, including Israel. Also, after the construction of this Corridor, the Republic of Azerbaijan will become an ideal location for gathering strategic information for Israeli espionage purposes.
Conclusion: The construction of the Zangezur Corridor under the ownership of the Republic of Azerbaijan will pave the way for a change in the geopolitical situation of the region and the presence of regional and trans-regional powers, while at the same time reducing Iran's geopolitical weight. The findings of the article indicate that this Corridor, due to changes in international borders, will reduce the Republic of Azerbaijan's dependence on Iran, increase identity conflicts and weaken Iran on the East-West axis. In the economic sector, it weakens and eliminates energy transmission, and Iran's transportation routes will be monopolized by Turkiye and the Republic of Azerbaijan, which will result in Iran's dependence on these countries. Overall, this reduces the importance of the corridor for Iran. In the military sector, strengthening military ties between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkiye will facilitate the growth and spread of ethnocentrism among the Republic of Azerbaijani speakers, which will easily arouse Iranian security sensitivities. This issue could also fuel concerns related to issues such as Pan-Turkism, separatist movements, the transfer of Israeli intelligence-security forces and weapons to the Republic of Azerbaijan via Turkiye and Israel can implement the same model that Iran implemented in the Axis of Resistance in West Asia in this region.