Russia's Role in the Emergence of a New Sub-Regional Order in West Asia (2010-2024)

Introduction: The theoretical approach governing the organization of data and the conclusion of analyses is neo-realism, based on the components of Kent Waltz, which emphasizes the use of a system theory based on outside-in explanation to analyze trends. We also use the qualitative analysis and explanation method, which involves an approach to studying the content of data and the perceptions of experts on the topic under discussion. To examine the hypothesis, we first outline the background of the research, presenting existing analyses in this field. Then, theoretical foundations based on neo-realism are proposed. Next, Russia's role in the West Asian region and its strategic dimensions will be examined. And finally, we will discuss the strategic implications of this situation and conclude the discussions.
West Asia has long been a scene of great powers' competition, but the dynamics of regional order have undergone a significant transformation in the post-Arab Spring era. As the United States reassesses its long-standing security commitments, a vacuum has emerged vacuum increasingly filled by a rising Russia. From military intervention in Syria to sophisticated diplomatic moves to balance regional rivalries, Moscow has transformed its role from an external observer to a central power broker. This article examines how Russia's strategic actions have contributed to the formation of a new sub-regional order characterized by multipolarity, fluid alliances, and transactional partnerships. Through a comprehensive analysis of Russia's bilateral and multilateral interactions, this study aims to illuminate the drivers and constraints shaping the geopolitical landscape of West Asia.
In the post-Cold War era and the era of globalization, the transition towards emerging regional and transregional levels has increased. The complexity of cooperation and interactions among actors, as well as the multi-dimensionality of the international actors, has led to the formation of such regional arrangements. Understanding regional campaigns is one of the most crucial needs in analyzing global politics within the current international system, because it is through these campaigns that interactions at the broader international level are strengthened and, as a result, the foreign policy strategies of each actor are defined. Therefore, the main issue addressed in this article is the developments that have occurred after the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war, where we are no longer faced with a unilateral order from the United States, and Russia is also seeking to impose and regulate an order in which it considers itself a partner.
Research question: What is Russia's role in the emergence of a new sub-regional order in West Asia?
Research hypothesis: Russia's role in the West Asia region is due to the requirements of the system, which has inevitably placed the country's foreign policy strategy on a path of influencing and playing a role in the region, thereby taking the initiative in other regions.
Methodology and Theoretical Framework: Neo-Realism accepts concepts used in classical realism, such as anarchy, power, national interests, and the distinction between domestic and international politics. However, the most important criticism of this theory is that it is reductionist. Therefore, structural realism employs the level of analysis of the international system rather than the national level of analysis to understand international politics. Waltz states that theories of international politics focus on individual or national causes, but theories that focus on international causes are systemic theories. Unlike classical realists, he separates international politics from economics, national politics, and other factors, and assigns an independent role to the international structure. The dominant paradigm of international relations is the balance of power. Therefore, a good theory of international relations explains the balance of power in all events.
Results and discussion: Given the expansion of Russia's power in recent years, the country is seeking to expand its influence using political, military, and economic tools in the West Asian region. Russia does not recognize the idea of a rules-based order promoted by the United States and the West, because the West seeks to create rules and impose them on the global community. By rejecting the post-Soviet international system and regional arrangements, Russia has sought a return to the post-World War II order. As a result, Russia finds itself caught between the powers that determine the fate of the world. They compete with each other, and mutual respect for interests and spheres of influence is the only factor that prevents this competition. This role, envisioned by the Russian leader, aims to establish a new order in West Asia that incorporates aspects of Russia's foreign policies and strategies.
Conclusion: An examination of the contexts, dimensions, and consequences of the strategic competition between Russia and the United States reveals that Russia's view of the international system is geopolitical, security, and realistic, which has turned international relations into a dangerous and unreliable environment. Despite such a tense, critical, and militarized atmosphere, Russia, due to systemic pressures, seeks to play a role in important regions such as West Asia based on the Waltzian realism envisioned by Kent Waltz. Because the strategic wisdom of the Russian elite is well aware of the dimensions of the West Asia region's capacity and position in shaping the international system and its influence in this region, which can affect the policies of actors in other regions. In fact, the attempt to maximize the power of Waltzian realism is evident in Russia's foreign policy strategy towards the region.