The Effectiveness of EU Economic Sanctions Against Russia (February 2022-November 2023)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor, Department of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 M.A. in International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

10.22059/jcep.2025.368498.450209

Abstract

Introduction: One of the important tools used in the context of international pressure against Russia after its aggression against Ukraine is economic sanctions, which were the reaction of many Western countries and the Western world in general, as a form of punishment for an action that considers Russia an aggressor. A related issue that is still under debate is the effectiveness of the sanction regime against Russia. Therefore, this research aims to understand, describe, and measure the effectiveness of economic sanctions in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine from February 2022 to November 2023. The importance of the issue lies in examining the economic sanctions in the context of Russia's attack on Ukraine, which can help clarify the extent of the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia. Therefore, the necessity of this research stems from the fact that previous researchers have examined this event from different perspectives. Through their research, it was found that there is no single, combined study that focuses solely on the effectiveness of economic sanctions against Russia (February 2022-November 2023). Previous research has used a quantitative or qualitative approach, often using a case study research method, and has focused on various issues, including the legal dimension of sanctions effectiveness, trade relations, and sanctions packages of different actors.
Research question: This article seeks to answer the question, “To what extent have EU economic sanctions against Russia been effective in its invasion of Ukraine (February 2022-November 2023)?"
Research hypothesis: According to the literature and the theoretical framework of the research, the hypothesis of this research is based on the claim that the economic sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia in response to the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from February 2022 to November 2023, have varying degrees of effectiveness and will have a significant impact from the perspective of compliance, international symbolism and domestic symbolism.
Methodology and theoretical framework: Drawing on Lindsay's theory of sanctions effectiveness, this study assesses the effectiveness of economic sanctions in relation to five separate objectives: compliance, subversion, deterrence, international symbolism, and domestic symbolism. The present study uses a mixed-methods study and finds a sequential exploratory design appropriate for its approach. This method begins with the collection and analysis of qualitative data, followed by the collection and analysis of quantitative data, and finally leads to interpretation. Therefore, data is collected through documentary, library, and virtual sources. Then, with the help of Lindsey's theory, a semi-structured questionnaire developed by the researcher was developed and distributed to 44 identified experts, including academics and individuals in the fields of sanctions and international political economy. This study was intentionally non-randomized, and the fuzzy delphi method was used to collect expert opinions.
Results and discussion: Since this research aims to examine the effectiveness of the European Union's economic sanctions against Russia, the data were evaluated based on five objectives and criteria (compliance, subversion, deterrence, international symbolism, and domestic symbolism) and using the fuzzy delphi method. The results of this analysis are as follows; The average level of agreement in the compliance criterion is 0.441 and in the subversion criterion, 0.347 and deterrence, 0.631 in international symbolism and 0.636 in domestic symbolism, meaning that the effectiveness of the EU sanctions regime against Russia from February 2022 to November 2023 in compliance objectives, international symbolism and domestic symbolism are 63%, and from the perspective of compliance and subversion, 44 percent and 34 percent, respectively. Cronbach's alpha was calculated using SPSS 25 software. Its value was 0.725, which indicates acceptable reliability of this questionnaire.
Conclusion: There is a consensus that the effectiveness of economic sanctions is linked to the goals of the sending governments. If economic sanctions fail to achieve their officially stated goals, they may still serve various and unclear agendas, unspecified agendas, and have their own effectiveness, which explains why sanctions remain a popular tool in foreign policy. Therefore, for this purpose, this research used Lindsay's five-dimensional framework to assess the effectiveness of sanctions in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The results show that the European Union sanctions regime against Russia during Russia's invasion of Ukraine (February 2022-November 2023) was effective and successful in terms of compliance with international and domestic symbolism. However, it was not significantly effective in terms of adaptation and subversion.
According to the analysis obtained, it can be admitted that they were not successful. This level of effectiveness suggests that the EU sanctions regime has been considered relatively effective in terms of deterring certain targeted actions (Russia) as well as conveying a symbolic message at the international and domestic levels, but in terms of compliance, it is clear that the sanctions regime has a relatively weaker impact on the implementation or compliance of measures imposed by the target (Russia) or other relevant actors. This indicates less success in achieving desired compliance with the imposed sanctions.
Finally, regarding the effectiveness of subversion, this study also shows that the sanctions regime has been less effective in terms of subversion and has faced challenges. While the sanctions regime has shown moderate effectiveness in deterrence and symbolization, it has faced limitations in achieving compliance and subversion. Finally, this assessment demonstrates the complexity of the impact and effectiveness of sanctions in countering the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine, emphasizes the multifaceted nature of assessing the impact of sanctions and argues that the effectiveness of the sanction’s regime against Russia, despite numerous gaps and widespread criticism, is still being used, which indicates the dominance of this concept in international political economy.

Keywords

References

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