The Foundations of Balancing in Iran's “Look East Policy” and Russia's Position in it

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Chalous Branch, Islamic Azad University, Chalous, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: The history of Iran's view of the East can be traced back to the slogan of the Islamic Revolution, "Neither East, Nor West". The idea was not consistent with the dominant pattern of behavior in the international system during the Cold War. After Iran separated from the Western bloc, it did not join the Eastern bloc. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of American unilateralism, the arrowhead of the Islamic Republic's confrontational policy was mainly pointed towards the West. Iran did not gain reliable experience in cooperation with the West, and this increased tensions and deepened differences between them. The signing of the JCPOA agreement, which was violated by Trump and its subsequent failure, is a turning point in Iran's strategic distance from the United States and its Western allies. In such circumstances, Iran has turned more seriously to a balancing foreign policy to counter Western pressures.
The Look East policy found a different basis and logic and was placed on the strategic agenda. In such a way, the Presidents of Iran and Russia signed the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" treaty in Moscow on January 17, 2025, to upgrade the level of relations. Looking to the East, with various geographical issues, has chosen Russia as a pillar of balance, which, like the Islamic Republic, is engaged in structural confrontation with the United States and Europe and has been the target of Western sanctions policies. On the other hand, Russia is a neighbor with significant strategic, military, and even economic capabilities that, under the environmental economic pressures resulting from the war, need cooperation with Iran to advance its goals.
Research question: What are the foundations of balancing in Iran's Look East policy? What impact has this had on Russia's political position?
Research hypothesis: Balancing in Iran's Look East policy has been based on competitive foundations, which have led to the elevation of Russia's position to the level of a strategic and geopolitical alliance.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This article aims to explain Russia’s position in the Look East policy and thus provide a critical reading of the results of deepening bilateral relations. The methodological framework for achieving this goal is based on the mixed levels of analysis approach and the Event-Based Trend Impact Analysis method. Inferring trends from important events that are considered turning points is the basis of this method. The events are the raw data, and the researcher focuses on finding connections between them in order to identify specific trends. Trends are considered the results of related events. Successive historical and current influential events (independent variable) are analyzed within the framework of a specific theory, and the relationship between them is examined to explain and formulate foreign policy trends (dependent variables). The method advances research in three layers: describing the current situation, mapping the most likely future trends, and prescribing relevant policy strategies. Therefore, the events considered turning points in Iran's Look East policy and Russia's foreign policy are explained at two levels of analysis: macro (structural changes in the international system) and meso (foreign policymaking in response to systemic changes). This method is used in the theoretical framework of competitive balancing as a foreign policy model.
Results and discussion: The geographical scope of Iran's Look East policy varies. This diversity has led some experts to define the East as the main target of this approach. Russia is not geographically limited to the East in its Look East policy, but it has an Eastern and Asian identity. What is considered the basic logic of the Look East policy is the rise of Asia and the decline of the United States. The evolution of Iranian foreign policy, which gradually showed Tehran’s greater divergence from the West and the United States, provided a new definition of the Look East approach, in a way that led it to prioritize emerging powers, including Russia. On the other hand, Russian leaders who think independently of interests in the light of the Eurasianist approach have adopted a strategy of balancing against the United States.
In this strategic framework, Russia becomes one of the main centers of the Look East policy, based on situational variables (as a great strategic power) and policy-making variables (counter-hegemonic confrontation). Necessities in various areas have driven the Look East policy towards Russia. The most important strategic imperatives include balancing the United States' international and regional standings in West Asia. The most important geopolitical imperatives include participation in managing regional security crises, peaceful nuclear interactions, and defense-arms exchanges. Finally, the most important geo-economic imperatives include lifting sanctions, transit cooperation, and Eurasianism.
Conclusion: The Russian pillar of the Look East policy is both a necessity and a strategic choice. Deepening relations with Russia is a strategic necessity for Iran, primarily to counter the hegemony of the West led by the United States. On the one hand, the focus of the Look East policy on Russia as a strategic choice is because it is both a great power in the East and a neighbor of Iran. Based on the international structural changes (the process of transition from the West to the East), Iran has tried to strengthen its relations with emerging powers that participate in the alternative international structure.
Also, given Russia's foreign policy approach, which is military-security in nature, and its role and intervention in West Asian affairs, this country is at the center of the strategic and military orientation of the Look East policy. As a result, the two countries' efforts to achieve their common goals are determined by creating a balance in foreign policy. The trend of international structural changes indicates a redistribution of power rather than a transfer of power, and this trend requires that the Look East policy be balanced with orientations in other geographical regions to expand the diversity of Iran's foreign relations.

Keywords

References

فارسی
آدمی، علی (1389)، «راهبرد نگاه ‌به ‌شرق در سیاست ‌خارجی جمهوری ‌اسلامی ‌ایران: دیدگاه‌ها، زمینه‌ها و فرصت‌ها»، مطالعات سیاسی، دورۀ 2، شمارۀ 7، صص 126-197،  قابل دسترسی در:
https://journals.iau.ir/article_666106_116d91074fe5b9ff1e48584995bd100a.pdf
(تاریخ دسترسی: 21/8/1404)
امضای موافقت‌نامۀ همکاری میان شرکت‌های ایران هرمز و آرای‌پی روسیه (1404)، سازمان انرژی اتمی ایران، قابل ‌دسترسی در: https://www.aeoi.org.ir/?news/48466/318363/375187/
(تاریخ دسترسی: 14/9/1404)
سازمند، بهاره و مریم گودرزی (1401)، «واکاوی تطبیقی جایگاه چین در رویکرد نگاه ‌به ‌شرق در سیاست ‌خارجی احمدی‌نژاد و روحانی»، مطالعات اوراسیای‌مرکزی، دورۀ 15، شمارۀ 1، صص.127-155، (doi: 10.22059/JCEP.2022.338889.450060)
سلیمانی‌پورلک، فاطمه (1402)، «الگوی رفتاری ایران در برابر جنگ ‌اوکراین، از سیاست‌‌خارجی موازنه‌گرا تا سیاست‌خارجی متوازن»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دورۀ 16، شمارۀ 2، صص. 200-175، (doi: 10.22059/JCEP.2024.367746.450176)
صفری ‌آقبلاغی، عسگر (1403)، «دیگری‌‎سازی در سیاست «نگاه ‌به ‌شرق» جمهوری ‌اسلامی‌ ایران و فدراسیون روسیه»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دورۀ 17، شمارۀ 1، صص. 255-281،
  (doi: 10.22059/JCEP.2024.371854.450196)
علویان، مرتضی و لیلا حسن‌نیارمی (1398)، «نواوراسیاگرایی و سیاست‌خارجی روسیه نسبت ‌به ایران»، مطالعات اوراسیای‌مرکزی، دورۀ 12، شمارۀ 2، صص. 419-439،
 (doi: 10.22059/jcep.2019.264730.449789)
کولایی، الهه و عفیفه عابدی (1397)، «مؤلفه‌های ژئوپلیتیکی سیاست‌خارجی روسیه»، ژئوپلیتیک، سال 14، شمارۀ 1، صص. 25-1،  قابل  ‌دسترسی در: https://journal.iag.ir/article_66679_850c780578b818202fdb7e8840b479a1.pdf?lang=en
(تاریخ دسترسی: 9/9/1404)
کولایی، الهه و سمیه زنگنه (1402)، «روابط ایران و روسیه پس ‌از جنگ ‌اوکراین»، مطالعات بین‌المللی، دورۀ 20، شمارۀ 2، صص. 81-101،
       (doi: 10.22034/isj.2023.402839.2027)
حمل‌ونقل ترکیبی در شرق دریای ‌خزر لازمۀ تحقق ۱۰ میلیون تن ترانزیت ‌با روسیه (1401)، وبسایت دولت، قابل دسترسی در: https://dolat.ir/detail/394916  (تاریخ دسترسی: 4/9/1404)
پیشرفت ۱۷ درصدی واحدهای دوم و سوم نیروگاه اتمی بوشهر (1403)، وبسایت دولت، قابل ‌دسترسی در: https://dolat.ir/detail/456237/ (تاریخ دسترسی: 10/9/1404)
 
English
Abbas, Syed Qandhil (2023), “Iran's Look East Policy: A Step towards Countering Western Pressures”, National Defence University (NDU) Journal, 37, 18 April, pp. 59-72, (doi:10.54690/ndujournal.37.139). 
Agami, Nedaa Mohamed Ezaat; Ahmed Mohamed Omran; Mohamed Mostafa Saleh; and Hisham Emad El-Din El-Shishiny (2008), “An Enhanced Approach for Trend Impact Analysis”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 75, No. 9, pp. 1439-1450,(doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.006).
Ahmad, Uroosa (2025), “Russia and Iran's Role in Post-Assad Syria: An Analysis”, Transactions on Education and Social Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 11-17, (doi: 10.21015/vtess.v13i1.2142).
Akhlaghi, Mohammadamin (2025), “Russia–Iran Strategic Partnership and Global Power Shifts (2015–2025)”, Social Studies, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 111-117, (doi: 10.61186/jss.11.3.111).
Alagöz, Bilgehan and Rahimullah Farzam (2022), “Iran’s Look to the East Policy in the Framework of Bounded Rationality Model”, Iranian Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-26, (doi: 10.33201/iranian.1095964).
Amiri, Mehdi (2023), “Strategic Cooperation between Iran and Russia; Opportunities and Challenges”, Middle East Political Review, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 23-52, Available at: Https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.23224525.2023.6.2.1.3) (Accessed on: 12/2/1404).
Asisian, Njdeh (2013), “Russia & Iran: Strategic Alliance or Marriage of Convenience”, Small Wars Journal, Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Njdeh-Asisian/publication/281903441_Russia_Iran_Strategic_Alliance_or_Marriage_of_Convenience/links/55fd892108aeba1d9f5cc8a0/Russia-Iran-Strategic-Alliance-or-Marriage-of-Convenience.pdf\ (Accessed on: 23/2/2025).
Azad, Shirzad (2022), “Looking-East in the Iranian Foreign Policy: The Politico-Ideological Inclinations and Practical Imperatives”, Globalization Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 53-75, (doi:10.30884/jogs/2022.02.04).
Azizi, Hamidreza (2023), “Close but Complicated: Iran-Russia Relations in the Middle East amid the War in Ukraine”, Fredrich Ebert Stiftung, Available at: https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/international/20084.pdf (Accessed on: 2/3/2025).
Dadparvar, Shabnam, and Vali Kaleji (2024), “The Chabahar Transit Project: Transition from Geo-Politics to Geo-Economics”, Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 283-308, (doi: 10.1080/19448953.2024.2379670).
Davis, Douglas, and Michael Slobodchickoff (2023), “Great Power Competition Following the Ukraine War”, in: Farhadi, Adib; Mark Grzegorewski, and Anthony J. Masys (eds.), The Great Power Competition, Vol. 5, New York: Springer.
Ehteshami, Anoushiravan, and Gawdat Bahgat (2019), “Iran’s Asianisation Strategy”, in: Perteghella, Annalisa, Iran Looking East: An Alternative to the EU? Italy: ISPI, Available at: https://www.ispionline.it/sites/default/files/pubblicazioni/ispi_iran_looking_web.pdf (Accessed on: 4/4/2025).
Fathollah-Nejad, Ali (2021), Iran in an Emerging New World Order from Ahmadinejad to Rouhani, London: Palgrave Macmillan, (doi:10.1007/978-981-15-6074-3).
Foundation for Defense of Democracies (2024), Russia to Launch Iranian Satellites into Space”, Foundation for Defence of Democracy, Available at: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/11/04/russia-to-launch-iranian-satellites-into-space/ (Accessed on: 14/12/2025).
Freedman, Robert (2000), “Russian–Iranian Relations in the 1990s”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 60-68, Available at: https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/meria/meria00_frr01.html (Accessed on: 4/3/2025).
Furlan, di Margherita, and Jeff Hoffman (2024), Mar Caspio, il nuovo ponte tra Russia e Iran, Casa del Sole TV, 24 June, Available at: https://casadelsole.tv/mar-caspio-il-nuovo-ponte-tra-russia-e-iran/?cn-reloaded=1, (Accessed on: 10/12/2025).
Gharayagh-Zandi, Davoud (2025), “Iran’s Look to the East Policy after US Withdrawal from Nuclear Deal: Chinese and Russian Directions”, in: Sahakyan, Mher (ed.), Routledge Handbook of Chinese and Eurasian International Relations, New York: Routledge.
Gordon, Theodore (1994), “Trend Impact Analysis”, AC/UNU Millennium Project, Available at: https://www.foresight.pl/assets/downloads/publications/Gordon1994-Trendimpact.pdf (Accessed on: 7/79/2025).
Güneylioğlu, Murat (2023), “The Russia-Iran Alignment in the Middle East: The Main Dynamics and Limits of the Bilateral Security Cooperation”, Akdeniz İİBF, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 50-62, (doi:10.25294/auiibfd.1170448).
Hunter, Shireen (2024), “Why Has Iran’s Looking East Policy Failed?”, Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies, Available at: https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/why-has-iran-looking-east-policy-failed.pdf (Accessed on: 17/5/2025).
Iran and Russia: Gyrating Trade Grows (2023), Iranprimer, 18, April, Available at: https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/18/iran-and-russia-gyrating-trade-grows?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Jalali, Ali (2001), “The Strategic Partnership of Russia and Iran”, Parameters, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 98-111, Available at: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2063&context=parameters (Accessed on: 7/5/2025).
Kaleji, Vali (2023), "Banking Cooperation between Iran and Russia: Capacities and Constraints”, Valdai Discussion Club, 20 September, Available at: https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/banking-cooperation-between-iran-and-russia (Accessed on: 14/4/2025).
Karami, Jahangir (2019), “Iran and Russia: Past Experiences and Future Prospects”, Iran and Central Eurosia Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 1-21, Available at: https://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_82794_2d6693af50eea51a414b7f19a5d3b8fa.pdf (Accessed on: 27/3/2025).
Karami, Jahangir (2022), “Iran-Russia Relations: New Opportunities and Existing Problems”, Quaestio Rossica, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 1258-1273,(doi: 10.15826/qr.2022.4.727).
Khavarinejad, Saeed (2024), “The Economic Aspect of a Strategic Partnership in Iran-Russia's Relations”, The 1st International Youth Conference Iran and Russia, Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/395241750_The_Economic_Aspect_of_a_Strategic_Partnership_in_Iran-Russia's_Relations (Accessed on: 19/4/2025).
King, Brian (2011), “Balance of Power”, in: John, Ishiyama and Marijke Breuning (eds.), 21st Century Political Science: A Reference Handbook, Los Angeles: Sage, Available at: https://dn720006.ca.archive.org/0/items/introduction-to-solid-state-physics-by-charles-kittel-urdukutabkhanapk.blogspot.com/Uploaded%20-%2031-03-2021/Political%20Science-31-3-21/21st% (Accessed on: 12/2/2025).
Koolaee, Elaheh (2016) “Changes in Russia-US Relations Under Medvedev”, International Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 15-42, Available at: https://www.isjq.ir/article_93112_ac1b62363dd2c675b3ce6fc4910178d1.pdf?lang=en (Accessed on: 19/11/2025).
Koolaee, Elaheh, and Somayeh Zanganeh (2023) “Iran-Russia Relations after the Ukraine War”, International Studies, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 81-101,(doi: 10.22034/ISJ.2023.402839.2027).
Koolaee, Elaheh; Aref Bijan; and Ehsan Ejazi (2024), “The Role of Iran and Russia as Regional Powers in the Middle East (2011-2020)”, Geopolitics, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp.151-172, (doi:10.22034/igq.2023.148171).
Kozhanov, Nikolay (2012), “Russia’s Relations with Iran: Dialogue without Commitments”, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Available at: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/russias-relations-iran-dialogue-without-commitments (Accessed on: 4/6/2025).
Lehne, Stefan (2023), “After Russia’s War against Ukraine: What Kind of World Order?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/02/after-russias-war-against-ukraine-what-kind-of-world-order?lang=en&center=europe (Accessed on: 26/3/2025).
Mearsheimer, John J. (2001), The Tragedy of the Great Powers, New York: W. W. Norton, Available at: https://samuelbhfaure.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/s2-mearsheimer-2001.pdf (Accessed on: 17/4/2025).
Mearsheimer, John J. (2019), “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order”, International Security, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 7-50,(doi: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00342).
Russia Sign Information Security Cooperation Pact (2021) Ministry of Foreign Affairs Iran, Available at: https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/625777/iran-russia-sign-information-security-cooperation-pact (Accessed on: 14/12/2025).
Morgenthau, Hans J (1949) Politics among Nations: Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred Knopf, Available at: http://slantchev.ucsd.edu/courses/ps240/04%20Conflict%20with%20States%20as%20Unitary%20Actors/Morgenthau%20-%20Politics%20among%20nations%20(selected%20chapters).pdf (Accessed on: 5/5/2025).
Mousavian, Seyed Hossein (2020), “Iran’s New Doctrine: Pivot to the East”, The Diplomat, 27 December, Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/irans-new-doctrine-pivot-to-the-east/ (Accessed on: 10/6/2025).
Niakooee, Seyed Amir, and Hossein Rahdar (2021), “The Middle East and Iran in Russia's Foreign Policy after the Ukraine War”, Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, Vol. 12, No. 34, pp. 493-524, (doi: 10.22034/irfa.2021.163444).
Samoylov, Yaroslav (2024), “Russia's Role in the Israeli-Iranian Relations”, Journal of International Economic and Administrative Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 88-103, Available at: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4294934, (Accessed on: 10/3/2025).
Sanaei, Mehdi, and Jahangir Karami (2021), “Iran’s Eastern Policy: Potential and Challenges”, Russia in Global Affairs, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp.25-49, (doi: 10.31278/1810-6374-2021-19-3-25-49).
Saraswat, Deepika (2022), Between Survival and Status: The Counter-Hegemonic Geopolitics of Iran, New Delhi: Macmillan Pub.
Saraswat, Deepika (2024), “Iran’s Look East Policy under Ebrahim Raisi: Tracing the Rise of a Middle Power”, Strategic Analysis, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 211-228,(doi: 10.1080/09700161.2024.2369392).
Sarma, Hriday Ch (2018), “Turning the International North-South Corridor into a “Digital Corridor”, Comparative Politics, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 123-138, (doi:10.24411/2221-3279-2018-10008).
Suchkov, Maxim and Polina I. Vasilenko (2019), “The Pendulum of Russian-Iranian Relations: From Common Goals to Divergent Interests”, in:  Perteghella, Annalisa, Iran Looking East: An Alternative to the E.U.? Italy: ISPI.
Therme, Clément (2022), “The Russian-Iran Partnership in a Multipolar World”, Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri), Available at: https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/migrated_files/documents/atoms/files/therme_russian_iran_partnership_2022.pdf (Accessed on: 21/4/2025).
Trenin, Dmitri (2016), “Russia in the Middle East: Moscow’s Objectives, Priorities, and Policy Drivers”, Carnegie Moscow Center, Available at: http://carnegie.ru/2016/04/05/russia-in-middle-east-moscow-s-objectives-priorities-and-policydrivers-pub-63244 (Accessed on: 23/5/2025).
Walt, Stephen (2022), “An International Relations Theory Guide to the War in Ukraine”, Foreign Policy, Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/08/%20an-international-relations-theory-guide-to-ukraines-war (Accessed on: 27/5/2025).
Waltz, Kenneth (1979), Theory of International Politics, Berkeley: Addison-Wesley Pub.
Warrick, Joby (2021), “Russia Is Preparing to Supply Iran with an Advanced Satellite System that Will Boost Tehran's Ability to Surveil Military Targets”, Washington Post, 10 May, Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/iran-russia-satellite/2021/06/10/d28978f0-c9ab-11eb-81b1-34796c7393af_story.html (Accessed on: 14/12/2025).
Wu, Tongyu (2024), “An Analysis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Iran’s 'Look East' Policy”, Middle East Studies, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 1-21,(doi: 20.1001.1.15601986.1403.31.1.8.8).
Yartaev, Belov, and Binish Binish (20121), “India, Russia and Iran: A New Study on “North - South” International Transport Corridor”, Information and Innovations, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 18-25, (doi: 10.31432/1994-2443-2021-16-4-18-25).
Central Eurasia Studies
Volume 18, Issue 2 - Serial Number 37
February 2026
Pages 199-228

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics