Relations between the South Caucasus and West Asia (2020–2025): the Republic of Azerbaijan and the UAE

Introduction: Recent years have witnessed changes in the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape of the South Caucasus and West Asia, which have led to fundamental changes in the dynamics of cooperation between the countries of these regions. The historical relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have made significant progress since 2020, evolving towards strategic cooperation in economic, security, and political aspects. The geographical and political positions of these countries, along with regional changes following events such as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the signing of the Abraham Accords, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have created a favorable environment for changes in their interactions. These developments have strengthened bilateral relations and highlighted the pivotal role of these actors in the geopolitical equations of two vital regions. Examining this relationship is crucial for a deeper understanding of how regional and global developments affect foreign policies and international cooperation.
Research question: How and through what stages have the Republic of Azerbaijan and the UAE relations advanced from friendly relations to a strategic partnership after 2020? In addition, which regional developments have acted as facilitators, obstacles, and opportunity creators?
Research hypothesis: The developments in West Asia and the South Caucasus after 2020, through a three-stage process including facilitating, barrier-breaking, and opportunity-creating developments, have reduced political and geopolitical barriers between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the UAE and paved the way for a sustainable strategic partnership.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This is a qualitative study based on a descriptive-analytical approach. The data are compiled and analyzed in the form of an innovative conceptual model including three categories of developments: "facilitators, barrier-breakers, and opportunity-creators." This model aims to reveal the strategic dimensions and dynamics of the relations between the two countries after 2020.
- Facilitating developments:
This pillar of the model looks at developments that create the initial energy and psychological, political, and geopolitical context necessary to enhance relations. However, due to structural barriers or regional tensions, they are unable to create sustainable strategic cooperation.
- Barrier-breaking developments:
The second pillar of this model includes events and mechanisms that facilitate the practical path and political will to deepen cooperation. Removing obstacles refers to the removal or reduction of political, diplomatic, and security barriers that previously hindered the development of positive relations.
- Opportunity-creating developments:
The third pillar of the conceptual model focuses on events and conditions that facilitate the realization of extensive and effective cooperation. In simpler terms, it involves changes in structure and conditions that create new opportunities for collaboration and relationship development. Joint projects are defined and initiated to create opportunities for sustainable exploitation of existing capacities.
These three categories operate in a chain and are interdependent:

Facilitating creates the initial context for rapprochement.
Barrier-breakers make this context practical and achievable.
Opportunity-creation elevates cooperation from a potential level to an actual and sustainable level.

 Thus, the process of forming cooperation between the UAE and the Republic of Azerbaijan is not the result of sporadic events, but continuous and staged. This model shows how independent developments, in a meaningful chain, change the structure of relations.
 Results and discussion: The main developments can be divided into three general categories based on their role in deepening cooperation.
- The Facilitators:
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 changed the Republic of Azerbaijan’s geopolitical and military position, increasing its power and solidifying its position as a key player in the region. This attracted the attention of trans-regional actors, including the UAE. In addition, the signing of the Abraham Accords between the UAE, Israel, and Bahrain created a new diplomatic and security framework, removing obstacles and paving the way for strategic cooperation.
- The Barrier Breakers:
The improvement of diplomatic and economic relations between Turkey and the UAE played an important role in removing obstacles to cooperation between the UAE and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Turkey, a strategic ally of the Republic of Azerbaijan, was essential in facilitating the reconciliation process between the two countries. By reducing conflicts and increasing cooperation, a favorable environment was created for deepening bilateral relations.
- The Opportunity Creators:
The war between Russia and Ukraine since 2022 has changed the balance of power and the European energy market. The Republic of Azerbaijan, with its energy resources and strategic location, has become an important partner for providing reliable energy to European markets. The UAE has made significant investments in clean energy and the development of the Republic of Azerbaijan's electricity and gas infrastructure, and has increased its cooperation with the country. The decline in Russian influence in the South Caucasus has also paved the way for the UAE to increase its political and economic influence in Azerbaijan.
Analysis of these categories shows that the closeness of relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the UAE is not the result of a single event, but rather the culmination of structural, security, and economic factors that, through interaction and mutual influence, have formed a framework for long-term cooperation.
Conclusion: The deepening of strategic relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the UAE is the result of a complex, multi-layered, and phased process that has been achieved through structural changes, the removal of political obstacles, and the exploitation of geopolitical opportunities. The Neo-realist framework has been an effective tool for analyzing these dynamics. The relationship between the two countries is an example of smart regional action. They have achieved sustainable and effective cooperation by leveraging diverse capacities and opportunities while overcoming challenges. This analytical model can serve as a guide for understanding complex regional interactions and identifying opportunities to transform crises into cooperation.