Future Scenarios of the Impact of Western Sanctions against Russia on the Ukrainian Crisis

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

A Ph. D in Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: The sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union against the Russian Federation following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 are considered one of the most extensive sanctions regimes in modern history. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions in playing a decisive role in ending the aforementioned crisis remains a subject of scientific and political debate. The Ukrainian crisis– which culminated in the 2022 invasion– is not simply a military conflict, but a multidimensional and complex phenomenon rooted in historical, geopolitical, security, and economic factors. The crisis has presented the international order with one of its greatest challenges since the end of the Cold War and has provoked a response from the Western community, led by the United States and the European Union. The central part of this response has been the imposition of an unprecedented set of economic, financial, and political sanctions against Russia, designed to alter the Kremlin’s strategic calculations, undermine the economic foundations supporting the war, and increase the costs of continuing the conflict. Therefore, examining the place of these sanctions in the intertwined network of causes and factors of the Ukrainian crisis is essential to understanding the dimensions of this conflict and to assessing the effectiveness of economic pressure tools in international relations.
Research question: What is the position of the European Union and United States sanctions against Russia within the context of the variables shaping and perpetuating the Ukrainian crisis, and what scenarios can be drawn for the future?
Research hypothesis: The present study is not a hypothesis test, but rather seeks to discover the variables and drivers that affect the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States against Russia in the Ukraine crisis.
Methodology: The present study is a quantitative study in terms of trend research, and its overall quality is based on the scenario writing process. In this study, the general scenario-based planning model was used. This model is one of the most common and accepted approaches to scenario writing and has wide application and relevance, including in the field of international issues. The aforementioned model begins with explaining the problem and identifying the components, and ends with analyzing the driving forces and existing uncertainties, developing and describing scenarios, and proposing strategic options.
Results and discussion: Based on the structural analysis using Miqmac software, this system has a complex power structure and variable dependencies, which are classified into four main quadrants. This analysis is based on the logic of structural analysis and complex systems theory, which is manifested in the MicMac method. The software output shows that out of the fifteen selected variables, one variable was identified in the group of influential variables (textural or determinant), seven variables in the group of dichotomous variables (four risk variables, three variables as target variables), one variable in the group of influenced variables and five variables in the group of independent (or lever) variables. Finally, this system has a monitoring variable called “Russian fiscal flexibility,” and it is the only factor that has the greatest impact on the other variables. Among the 15 key variables identified, “Russian technology spin-off” was identified as the main influential variable, and “Russian fiscal flexibility” as the key moderating variable. Also, “China’s response to secondary sanctions” is a bimodal variable with high potential to create breaking points in the system. Among the two-state variables and the adjustment variable, two variables have been selected as the focus of the scenarios because they play the greatest role in the uncertainty and future of the system: One is the variable “China’s reaction to secondary sanctions” (a binary variable), which determines whether the pressure of sanctions on Russia is intensified or neutralized. The other is the variable "Russian fiscal flexibility" (adjustment variable), which is the result and at the same time determines the effectiveness of the other variables. Russia's ability to withstand shocks is key to its survival in this economic war. Based on these two pivotal variables, four possible scenarios were drawn: “perfect storm”, “strategic deadlock”, “new bipolar world”, and “collapse and chaos”.
Conclusion: The conclusion is that the effectiveness of sanctions is highly dependent on their interaction with domestic (e.g., Russian economic resilience) and external (e.g., Chinese position) factors and cannot be analyzed in isolation. This research shows that Ukraine's crisis management requires a systemic understanding of these interrelationships. These scenarios show how China’s response as an external determinant and Russia’s fiscal flexibility as an internal determinant could shape the future of this complex system. The MicMac analysis confirms that these two variables are the key factors with the greatest impact and uncertainty and are therefore the best choice for designing Wizard scenarios. The future will likely be a combination of elements of these scenarios, but each of these paths has very different implications for global security and stability. This research clearly shows that univariate, linear analyses of the complex Ukrainian crisis are inadequate and misleading. Only by considering the interconnected network of variables and their dynamic interaction can a realistic understanding of the dimensions of the crisis be achieved. Sanctions, while powerful and unprecedented, are not a magic weapon. Their effectiveness depends on the interaction of other factors, some of which (such as China’s reaction) are even beyond the West's control.

Keywords

References

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Central Eurasia Studies
Volume 18, Issue 2 - Serial Number 37
February 2026
Pages 257-288

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