India and China in Kazakhstan: Anatomy of a Hedging Strategy

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Assistant Professor, Department of South and East Asia and Oceania, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: Kazakhstan, as a landlocked country at the heart of Eurasia, uses its distinct geopolitical position to actively engage with diverse international partners on transit and infrastructure projects in Central Asia. The country has made significant investments in its logistics infrastructure. Kazakhstan’s priorities for sustainable transport development focus on modernizing the road network, expanding railway capacity, and increasing regional connectivity.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, whose investments are aligned with the Kazakh government's development programs in energy, industry, transport, and agriculture, has positioned Kazakhstan as a strategic gateway to its major economic corridors. On the other hand, India is expanding its presence in the Eurasian region through the North–South International Transport Corridor. This corridor offers the shortest transit routes between the Eurasian Economic Union and key regions such as South Asia and is of significant strategic value for Kazakhstan. Overall, Kazakhstan aims to establish itself as a vital Eurasian transit hub by leading the great power competition and maintaining strategic balance through diverse partnerships. Indeed, as the largest and most economically important country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan is at the heart of the strategic competition between the emerging powers of India and China, acting as the intersection of their competing transit corridors.
Research question: What approach has Kazakhstan taken towards the infrastructure diplomacy and transit corridor initiatives of the two rival powers?
Research hypothesis: Kazakhstan's foreign policy towards India and China’s transit strategies is guided by a hedging strategy to reduce vulnerability, prevent the dominance of any single power, preserve national independence, and shift the country’s position from a region of competition to a hub of regional connectivity and cooperation.
Methodology: Using a qualitative methodology and relying on the conceptual frameworks of “multi-vector policy and hedging strategy,” this research analyzes the substantive evidence related to Kazakhstan’s hedging policy towards the competition between India and China. The data were collected through library and documentary sources.
Results and discussion: Kazakhstan is combining its traditional “multi-vector” foreign policy with a more sophisticated hedging strategy to navigate a challenging international environment characterized by sanctions, infrastructure risks, and great power competition. Moving beyond mere neutrality, Kazakhstan focuses on diversifying vulnerabilities and sources of gain through three defined policy paths that are systematically measured through policy instruments, tangible outcomes, and formal agreements.
Kazakhstan’s engagement with China and India is an example of this complex hedging, whereby the country insulates itself from risks without changing geopolitical alignments through institutional, procedural, and infrastructural hedging. As part of its institutional hedging, Kazakhstan joined the World Trade Organization in 2015, adopted international standards for cross-border cargo, and leveraged the unified legal framework of the Eurasian Economic Union to attract Chinese investment while gaining greater regulatory control over its transit relations.
Moreover, by formally aligning China’s Belt and Road Initiative with its national development agenda, Kazakhstan has actively channeled China’s capital and geopolitical mobility toward financing its strategic infrastructure priorities. This synergy has been a conscious move to de-risk development costs, build independent transit assets, and transform from a potential ally into an indispensable logistical partner in relations with great powers.
In the area of ​​infrastructure hedging, Kazakhstan has invested heavily in building a multimodal and diversified transit network, including the Northern, Middle (Trans-Caspian), Southern, and Europe-China corridors. This route diversity reduces dependence on any single partner or route and strengthens the country’s position as a Eurasian logistics hub. In the area of ​​procedural, institutional, and infrastructure risk hedging, Astana is diversifying its financial resources by attracting capital from multilateral development banks such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and advancing projects within the framework of transparent international rules to prevent the monopolistic influence of major powers.
Conclusion: Kazakhstan serves as a strategic arena for China-India competition in Eurasia. China is using it as a pivot for its Belt and Road Initiative, deepening Kazakhstan's economic dependence through massive infrastructure investments and trade linkages. India is countering this through the North-South International Transport Corridor and multilateral cooperation, appealing to shared multipolar principles. Kazakhstan is not a passive actor; it is consciously employing a sophisticated hedging strategy within the framework of multi-vectorism. By simultaneously engaging with the India-China communication corridors, Astana avoids exclusive dependence on any single power. This balanced policy has enabled Astana to gain economic benefits from both rivals, become a vital transportation hub, reduce vulnerability to unilateral dependence, and strengthen its political leverage. Thus, Kazakhstan has turned great-power competition into an opportunity to strengthen its sovereignty, strategic connectivity, and capacity to create an independent balance in the region

Keywords

References

 
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Central Eurasia Studies
Volume 18, Issue 2 - Serial Number 37
February 2026
Pages 143-170

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