The Logic of Change and Continuity in Afghanistan's Neighborhood Policy toward Iran

Introduction: Afghanistan’s neighborhood policy is a central pillar of its foreign policy, shaped by its landlocked geography and its dependence on regional interactions. Among its neighbors, Iran holds a unique position due to its deep historical, cultural, linguistic, and economic ties, as well as its geopolitical and geoeconomic importance, particularly through Afghanistan’s access to international markets through the Chabahar port. Despite these structural stabilities, Afghanistan’s policy toward Iran has undergone significant changes under different political regimes. During the period of the Republic and the second Islamic Emirate, patterns of cooperation, competition and confrontation have emerged simultaneously. While existing perspectives often emphasize the fluctuations of bilateral relations, they tend to ignore the underlying logic that explains both change and continuity. This study addresses this gap by providing a comparative and theory-based analysis of Afghanistan’s neighborhood policy toward Iran.
Research question: The main question is to what extent Afghanistan’s neighborhood policy toward Iran has changed and persisted during the Republic period and the second Islamic Emirate, and what underlying logic explains these patterns. Existing studies have largely focused on descriptive narratives of political, economic, or security relations, while paying little attention to the deeper structural, internal, and ideological drivers that shape these policies. This study shifts the focus to identifying the logic behind political behavior across different regimes.
Research hypothesis: Afghanistan’s neighborhood policy towards Iran follows a patterned evolution in three stages: a cooperative-interactive approach during the Hamid Karzai era, a cooperative-competitive approach during the Mohammad Ashraf Ghani era, and a cooperative-confrontational approach during the second Islamic Emirate era, while maintaining the continuity of economic-trade relations.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This research applies a qualitative comparative–analytic approach based on document analysis and discourse analysis. Rather than relying on quantitative indicators, it focuses on interpreting patterns of behavioral patterns and underlying meanings in political periods. The analytical model is structured around six dimensions: political-diplomatic, security, economic-commercial, cultural-social, identity-ideological, and environmental-natural resources. The theoretical framework integrates liberal and neoliberal institutionalism to explain economic cooperation and interdependence, Neoclassical and defensive realism to analyze security dynamics and threat perceptions, and constructivism to interpret identity, discursive, and cultural factors. This multi-theoretical approach allows for a comprehensive explanation of continuity and change.
Results and discussion: The findings suggest that Afghanistan’s neighborhood policy toward Iran, rather than a sudden shift, reflects a dynamic interplay between continuity and evolution. During the Karzai era, relations were characterized by cooperative–interactional dynamics, with strong diplomatic engagement, cultural convergence, and expanding economic ties. During the Ghani era, this policy shifted toward a cooperative-competitive pattern, in which economic cooperation continued, but political distrust, identity tensions, and security suspicions intensified. In the second Islamic Emirate, the policy evolved into an interactive-confrontational pattern, characterized by ongoing economic interaction alongside political tensions, border conflicts, and ideological divergence. In all periods, economic–commercial relations show the highest degree of continuity due to interdependence, while cultural, ideological, and environmental factors- especially water disputes- act as key drivers of change. The analysis also shows that different dimensions of politics are interconnected and that identity and environmental issues significantly influence political and security behavior.
Conclusion: Afghanistan’s neighborhood policy toward Iran is best understood as a multi-dimensional and evolving strategy shaped by both structural constraints and internal developments. While economic interdependence provides continuity, shifts in political leadership, perceptions of identity, and regional dynamics drive change in other dimensions. The transition from cooperative-interactional patterns to interactive-competitive patterns and ultimately to interactive-confrontational patterns reflects the adaptive nature of Afghanistan’s foreign policy. This study suggests that a multi-theoretical framework is essential to understanding the complexity of neighborhood policy and highlights the importance of integrating economic, identity, and environmental factors in understanding regional relations.