The Effects of Economic Factors on Finland's Foreign Policy towards the Russian Federation

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Assistant Professor, Regional Studies Department, Faculty of Law & Political Science, University of Tehran

Abstract

Introduction: Economic and trade relations between Russia and Finland have been transforming under the influence of global and regional trends. Russia has always emphasized its interest in enhancing mutually beneficial cooperation with Finland based on investments, technology transfer, industrial cooperation and increasing the share of non-resource non-energy goods in turnover. There is an interest in bringing high-tech and high-quality Finnish industrial products and providing them an opportunity to participate in large-scale public industrial projects. Russia is at the same time a substantial threat and opportunity in Finnish foreign policy. Finland's foreign policy towards Russia is based on two pillars: defense (the need for military deterrence) and economic (the need for broad relations). The main focus of the article is on this second pillar. In fact, so established and sacred was this pillar of foreign policy that the term ‘Finlandisation’ arose, many decades ago, as a description of when a country is induced to favour, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country, despite not being politically allied to it. History and geography are two critical factors that have made Finland and Russia inherent economic partners. Finland's management of relations with Russia is a unique example that has set an example for many countries worldwide. The economic integration between Finland and Russia has occurred almost by itself without any tremendous public effort. However, determination in policy-making can help integrate Finland and Russia's economies even further. The complicated relations with Russia can be seen as Finland's historical dilemma: neighboring Russia but now a part of the West, Finland's room for maneuver is not self-evident and requires constant management.
Research Question: All things considered, it begs the question in this regard, it begs the question how have economic factors affected the direction of Finland's foreign policy towards Russia? Examining the order of this process is also essential.
Research Hypothesis: This article hypothesizes that energy, along with trade in goods and services, are the most important economic variables that have led to the pursuit of resilience and normative strategies, resulting in mutual vulnerability in Finnish-Russian interactions.
Methodology (and Theoretical Framework if there are): The paper uses the theory of asymmetric interdependence based on Keohen and Nye vulnerabilities. Accordingly, the economy is sensitive to the extent that it is exposed to costs inflicted from the outside before policies are introduced to change the situation; it is vulnerable to the extent that it is exposed to costs inflicted from the outside after policies have been applied. If outside costs can be imposed on a country in the form of higher prices for a commodity that is important to its economy, for instance, oil, then that country is sensitive. Suppose the country has some means to change this situation, either by switching its source of imports using trade sanctions in some way by military force. Then it is not vulnerable. If prices of these commodities go up and the country can do nothing about it, it is both sensitive and vulnerable. This distinction can be beneficial when dealing with economic interdependence. Descriptive statistics are brief descriptive coefficients that summarize a given data set, which can represent the entire population or a sample of a population. The research method is a combination of descriptive statistics and field research. Descriptive statistics are broken down into measures of central tendency and measures of variability (spread). Descriptive statistics, in short, help describe and understand the features of a specific data set by giving short summaries about the sample and measures of the data.
Results and discussion: Russia offer significant opportunities for the Finnish business sector. Finland's trade has overgrown in the 2000s, and Russia is becoming Finland's most important trade partner.
Conclusion: The study's findings suggest that Russia is using energy to advance its policies towards Finland with a geo-economics approach. Finland is also vulnerable in trade in goods, but it has the upper hand in services. The sum of these two constants has led to interdependence in the relationship between them. Besides Finnish Russian trade's development, the business between the two affects more. Among the other cities in the development corridor, Finnish knowledge and competitiveness help Northern Europe's economic development. A recession outcome would need an escalation in war and/or more severe deterioration in energy and raw material markets. Nonetheless, growth will decline and inflation will spike.

Keywords


Bank of Finland (2022), “War in Ukraine will Slow Finland’s GDP Growth and Increase Inflation”, Available at: https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2022/articles/war-in-ukraine-will-slow-finland-s-gdp-growth-and-increase-inflation/,(Accessed on: 20/5/2022).
Business Finland (2022), “Russia: A Market Review Based on the Visit Finland Visitor Surveys 2016–2018”, Available at: https://www.businessfinland.fi/ 4a289c/globalassets/julkaisut/visit-finland/tutkimukset/2019/russia---a-market-review-based-on-the-visit-finland-visitor-surveys-2016-2018.pdf, (Accessed on: 2/5/2022).
Doing Business (2022), “Ease of Doing Business Finland”, Available at: https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/data/exploreeconomies/finland#,(Accessed on: 5/1/2022).
EC (2006), “WEF Ranks Finland Second Most Competitive Country”, Available at: https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/19333-wef-ranks-finland-second-most-competitive-country, (Accessed on: 5/1/2022).
 EC (2021), “Russia-EU – International Trade in Goods Statistics”, Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Russia-EU_%E2%80%93_international_trade_in_goods_statistics#EU_and_Russia_in_world_trade_in_goods, (Accessed on: 30/3/2021).
EC (2022), “Balticconnector Gas Pipeline Up and Running Since 1 January 2020”, Available a https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/balticconnector-gas-pipeline-ready-use-1-january-2020-2020-jan-08_en, (Accessed on: 5/1/2022).
Fedorov, Gennady, Valentin, Korneevets, Ilya Tarasov, and Chasovskiy, Vladimir (2016), “Russia among the Countries of the Baltic Region”, International Journal of Economics and Financial, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 1502-1506. (doi:www.econjournals.com)
Finnish Government (2016), “Government Report on Finnish Foreign and Security Policy”, Available at: https://valtioneuvosto.fi/documents/10616/1986338/ VNKJ092016+en.pdf/b33c3703-29f4-4cce-a910-b05e32b676b9, (Accessed on: 10/12/2021).
Gregory, Michael and Morgan Trujillo (2019), Arctic Security: The Race for Arctic through the Prism of International Relations Theory, Portland: Portland State University.
Harrison, Lisa (2019), Political Research: an Introduction. Tehran: Donya Eghtesad [in Persian].
Haukkala, Hiski (2010), “Finnish Foreign Policy: A Brief Intro”, Available at: https://finland.fi/life-society/finnish-foreign-policy-a-brief-intro/, (Accessed on: 2/1/2021) Retrieved from Ministry for Foreign Affairs:
Heininen, Lassi (2014), Foreign Policy Interests of Finland in the Arctic, in: Perceptions and Strategies of Arcticness in Sub-Arctic Europe, by Spruds Andeis and Toms Rostoks99-117. Riga: Latvijas Arpolitikas Institus.
Hjerppe, Riitta (1993), “Finland's Foreign Trade and Trade Policy in the 20th”, Scandinavian Journal of History, Vol. 18. No. 1, pp. 57-76. (doi:10.1080/03468759308579247).
Hudd, Tim (2018), “Understanding International Students Numbers in Finland”, Available at: https://www.nyyti.fi/en/blogi/understanding-international-students-in-finland/, Retrieved from Finnish National Agency for Education: (Accessed on: 5/1/2021).
Jääskeläinen, Jaakko, Sakari Höysniemi, Sanna Syri and Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen (2018), “Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?” Sustainability, Vol. 10, No.10, pp. 1-25. (doi:10.3390/su10103445).
Jääskeläinen, Jaakko, Noora Veijalainen, Sanna Syri, Mika Marttunen and Behnam Zakeri (2018), “Energy Security Impacts of a Severe Drought on the Future Finnish Energy System”. Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 10, No. 217, pp. 542-554. (doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.03.017).
Jakobson, Max (2006), Finland: A Lone Wolf, Otava: Otava Publishing.
Keohane, Robert and Joseph Nye (2021), From Interdependence to Global Governance, Translated by Vahid Bozorgi. Tehran: Ghoomes.
Kunz, Barbara (2018), Northern Europes Strategic Challenge from Russia, Paris: IFRI.
Lempinen, Hanna (2019), “Barely Surviving on a Pile of Gold”, Energy Policy, Vol. 128, pp. 1-7. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.041)
Lautso, Kari, Pirjo Venäläinen and Hannu Lehto (2005), Transport Connections between the EU and Russia Current Status and Outlook for the Future. Helsinki: Ministry of Transport and Communications.
Martikainen, Toivo and Antto Vihma (2016), Dividing the EU with Energy? Unpacking Russian`s Energy Geoeconomics, Helsinki: FIIA.
Martikainen, Toivo, Katri Pynnöniemi, and Sinikukka Saari (2016), Neighbouring an Unpredictable Russia, Helsinki: The Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Myller, Ekaterina and Lea Hannola (2010), Logistic Overview of Finnish Transit Transportation and Foreign Trade between Finland and Russia, Lappeenranta: Lappeenranta University of Technology.
Niknami, Roxana (2019), “Concluding EU- Georgia Free Trade Agreement (Opportunities and Challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran)”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 253-271 (doi:10.22059/jcep.2019. 269647.449808). [in Persian].
Ochoa, Camila and Gore, Olga (2015), “The Finnish Power Market: Are Imports from Russia Low-Cost?”, Energy Policy, Vol. 80, No. 1, pp. 122-132. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.031).
OEC (2022), “Russia/Finland”. Available at: https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/rus/partner/fin#comparative-services, (Accessed on: 2/2/2022).
OECS (2020), “Finland”, Available at: https://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/ FINLAND-2020-OECD-Economic%20Survey-Overview.pdf, (Accessed on: 5/1/2022).
Offshore (2019), “Baltic Connector Pipeline Ready for Use”, Available at: https://www.offshore-energy.biz/balticconnector-pipeline-ready-for-use/, (Accessed on: 20/5/2022)
Ollus, Simon-Erik and Heli Simola (2006), Russia in the Finnish Economy, Helsinki: Sitra.
Ollus, Simon-Erik and Nils Torvalds (2006), From Trade to Partnership, Helsinki: Sitra.
Olme, Anna (2017), The Russian Outbound Tourism to Finland during the Economic Downturn, Helsinki: University of Applied Science.
Ruutikainen, Pentti and Ulla Tapaninen (2009), Development of Russian Ports in the Gulf of Finland, Turku: Center for Maritime Studies.
Sabbaghian, Ali and Roya Rasooli (2021), “Stability Analysis of Russia-EU Energy Relations after the Ukraine Crisis from Perspective of the Interdependence Theory”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 177-201 (doi:10.22059/jcep.2020.280927.449842), [in Persian].
Smith, Hanna (2008), Russia of Challenges, Helsinki: Ministry of Defence.
Statista (2022), “Number of International Visitor Arrivals in Finland from January to July 2021 by Country of Origin”, Available at: https://www.statista.com/ statistics/435522/visitor-arrivals-in-finland/, (Accessed on: 2/2/2022).
Statistics Finland (2021), “Energy in Finland”, Available at: https://www.stat.fi/til/ ehk/2020/04/ehk_2020_04_2021-04-16_tie_001_en.html, (Accessed on: 5/1/2022).
Statistics Finland (2021a), “Renewable Energy Surpassed Fossil Fuels and Peat in Total Energy Consumption in 2020”, Available at: https://www.stat.fi/til/ehk/ 2020/04/ehk_2020_04_2021-04-16_tie_001_en.html, (Accessed on: 16/4/2021).
Statistics Finland (2021b), “Transport and Tourism”, Available at: https://www.stat.fi/tup/suoluk/suoluk_liikenne_en.html, (Accessed on: 17/8/2021).
Statista (2021c), “Total Revenue of the Transport Sector in Finland in 2018, by Mode of Transport”. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/449004/ finland-turnover-volume-in-the-transport-sector-by-mode/, (Accessed on: 24/9/2021).
STTK, (2022), “The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Finland”. Available at: https://www.sttk.fi/en/ukraine/, (Accessed on: 20/5/2022).
Szymaski, Piotr (2018), With Russia Right Across the Border: Finland`s Security Policy, Warsaw: OSW.
Tkachenko, Stanislav (2019), Cooperation between Saint-Petersburg and Finland: Some Recommendations for the Policy-Maker. Hjeltintalo: Centrum Balticum.
Trading Economics (2021), “Finland Competiveneses Rank”, Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/finland/competitiveness-rank, (Accessed on: 30/2/2021).
Tutak, Magdalena, Jarosław Brodny, Dominika Siwiec , Robert Ulewicz  and Peter Bindzár, (2020), “Studying the Level of Sustainable Energy Development of the European Union Countries and their Similarity Based on the Economic and Demographic Potential”, Energies, Vol. 13, No. 24, pp. 1-32 (doi:10.3390/en13246643).
Tynkkyne, Veli-Pekka, Pynnöniemi, Katri, and Höysniemi, Sakari (2017), Global Energy Transitions and Russia’s Energy Influence in Finland, Helsinki: Government's Analysis, Assessment and Research Activities.
Yle (2022), “Finland Replaces Russian Gas with Baltic Link”, Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/finland/competitiveness-rank, (Accessed on: 20/5/2022).