Iran’s Policy towards Kyrgyzstan; Current Strategies, Future Scenarios

Introduction: Foreign policy is a complex subject within the field of international relations, specifically falling under the branch of  foreign policy analysis. It is heavily influenced by both domestic and international factors. The decision-making process for foreign policy involves a careful consideration of both domestic and foreign considerations. Therefore, it is important to use theories and models to analyze and examine the foreign policies of countries, taking into account both internal and external environments. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of new republics created a competitive environment in Central Asia. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been actively involved in the ongoing developments in Central Asia and was one of the first countries to officially recognize the independence of Kyrgyzstan on December 21, 1991. Iran has made efforts to strengthen cooperation with Kyrgyzstan in various areas such as politics, economics, culture, science, and technology through bilateral relations and regional cooperation. In order to achieve this, Iran has adopted various foreign policy strategies towards the Republic of Kyrgyzstan. The aim of this study is to analyze the current foreign policy strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards Kyrgyzstan and present potential scenarios for Iranian foreign policy in the country.
Research question: This study aims to answer the following questions: What are Iran's foreign policy strategies in Kyrgyzstan? What are the strengths and weaknesses of these strategies?
Research hypothesis: The proposed hypothesis is that Iran's foreign policy strategies towards Kyrgyzstan have not been successful and dynamic due to the country's internal strengths and environmental opportunities.
Methodology and theoretical framework: The present research aims to analyze the past and present strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Kyrgyzstan by developing a conceptual model influenced by foreign policy analysis approaches and their governing principles. This will be followed by a forward-thinking approach to create potential and desirable scenarios for the Islamic Republic of Iran in this country. The conceptual model of the research will incorporate two strategic management models, namely Swat and Postel, as research techniques. The research approach will be a "futuristic" one, with a focus on scenarios. The main advantage of this conceptual model is its ability to simultaneously consider the micro, macro, and moderate levels, while using a futuristic approach to analyze the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Kyrgyzstan.
Results and discussion: Based on the drivers, trends, events, and images, the following scenarios can be envisioned for Iran's foreign policy in Kyrgyzstan: The first scenario: the no-surprise scenario: Possible revision: One of the most likely scenarios for Iran's foreign policy in Kyrgyzstan is the continuation of current trends without any major changes. This scenario falls under the category of static scenarios and involves maintaining the current level of bilateral relations. The second scenario can be referred to as either "the most likely optimal state" or the optimistic scenario:
This scenario predicts that with the implementation of the comprehensive ten-year contract between the two countries and the exploitation of many mines, the tourism and hydroelectric potential of the country, the strengthening of communication corridors, the benefits of the country's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union in relation to Iran, as well as Iran's permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the political, economic and cultural relations between the two countries will be promoted to the desired level.
The third scenario: "The worst-case scenario" or the pessimistic scenario: Due to the fact that currently Iran's relations with all the countries of the Central Asian region, including Kyrgyzstan, are not at an optimal level in relation to their strengths and the opportunities of the region, the possible unfavorable scenario is the continuation of the same trend along with the weakening of this relationship due to reasons such as the strong presence of China and other are competing countries.
Favorable or miracle scenarios: The removal of sanctions on Iran, the establishment of normalized relations with the international community, and Iran's permanent membership in the Shanghai Organization will have a significant impact on Iran's global influence, as well as the region and the country of Kyrgyzstan. This will greatly enhance the overall level of relations between all parties involved.
Conclusion: The study of Iran's foreign policy in Kyrgyzstan reveals that while political and cultural relations between the two countries were positive and amicable, economic relations were limited and at a low level. Based on the Swot and Pestel model, Iran's political strategy in Kyrgyzstan was aggressive, with a defensive economic strategy and a focus on cultural diversification. Various scenarios for the future of relations between the two countries can be analyzed, including optimistic ones, but other potential scenarios should also be considered. Ultimately, the research hypothesis can be confirmed that despite having strengths and opportunities, the two countries still have a long way to go in achieving an ideal relationship due to environmental weaknesses and challenges.