Pakistan's Foreign Policy towards Afghanistan Based on "Strategic Depth" (1950-2025)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabatabae'i University, Tehran, Iran

2 A Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/jcep.2025.387914.450289

Abstract

Introduction: Since Pakistan's independence in 1947, it has shown a persistent sensitivity to the security and stability of Afghanistan, a concern deeply rooted in its perception of India as a regional threat. This concern has been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s "Strategic Depth" doctrine, a framework for foreign policy designed to use Afghanistan as a buffer zone to balance Indian influence and enhance Pakistan’s defensive capabilities. Over the decades, this doctrine has undergone significant evolution, reflecting changes in geopolitical realities, regional dynamics, and domestic pressures. These changes are particularly evident in three distinct historical phases: the Cold War period (1950s–1980s), the post-Cold War era of the 1990s, and the contemporary period after 2015, with a notable turning point after the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Understanding the evolution of this policy is critical not only for analyzing Pakistan’s foreign relations but also for understanding the broader security and geostrategic complexities of South and Southwest Asia. The interaction of historical rivalries, such as the enduring tensions with India over Kashmir and the dispute over the Durand Line with Afghanistan, alongside the emerging economic imperatives and international pressures, has continually changed Pakistan’s strategic approach towards its western neighbor.
Research question: The main question is: How has Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan, centered on the Strategic Depth doctrine, changed from the 1950s to 2025?
Research hypothesis: This study proposes a hypothesis that outlines three evolutionary stages of this doctrine: Pakistan’s Strategic Depth policy was geopolitically driven during the Cold War, focusing on countering Soviet influence and Indian presence; in the 1990s, it combined geopolitics with ideology by supporting the Taliban to secure a friendly regime in Kabul and after the Taliban’s resurgence in 2021, it shifted towards a geoeconomic orientation, prioritizing economic cooperation and regional stability over military and ideological dominance. This hypothesis suggests that the adaptations of this doctrine reflect Pakistan’s responses to changing internal and external circumstances, including security challenges, economic imperatives, and the emergence of new strategic partnerships.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This research uses an explanatory methodology to test the proposed hypothesis. This approach integrates historical analysis with contemporary policy assessment, drawing on primary and secondary sources. Historical data from the Cold War era and the 1990s are examined to trace the geopolitical and ideological foundations of the Strategic Depth doctrine. Developments since 2015, especially after 2021, are analyzed to assess the shift towards geoeconomic priorities. The study uses qualitative methods, including content analysis of policy documents, official statements, and scholarly literature, to identify patterns of change in Pakistan’s strategic behavior. Furthermore, the research contextualizes these developments within broader regional and international dynamics, such as NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, China’s growing influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, and India’s expanding role in Afghan affairs. This multifaceted methodology ensures a comprehensive understanding of how and why Pakistan’s foreign policy has evolved over the time period covered.
Results and discussion: This analysis shows that Pakistan's strategic depth doctrine has undergone a fundamental transformation, influenced by a combination of internal vulnerabilities and external pressures. During the Cold War, this policy was rooted in geopolitical imperatives, as Pakistan aligned itself with Western powers to counter Soviet influence in Afghanistan while using the country as a defensive buffer zone against India. In the 1990s, the doctrine became a combination of geopolitics and ideology, as Pakistan supported the Taliban to establish a pro-Islamabad regime in Kabul, to secure its western borders and limit India’s regional position. However, this had significant negative consequences, including increased domestic extremism, instability in tribal areas, and international isolation. After 2015 and especially after the resurgence of the Taliban in 2021, the doctrine shifted towards a geoeconomic focus. Key findings suggest that factors such as the destabilizing effects of protracted militancy, economic crises, global diplomatic pressures, and the emergence of China as a strategic partner have forced Pakistan to reconsider its approach. The withdrawal of NATO and the return of the Taliban were a turning point in testing this shift, making a move away from traditional security-oriented strategies toward fostering economic interdependence and regional stability. Evidence of this shift includes a reduction in military support for proxy forces, an increased emphasis on trade and connectivity projects with Afghanistan, and a pragmatic acceptance of India’s legitimate interests in the region, provided that these interests do not directly undermine Pakistan’s security.
Conclusion: The study concludes that although the concept of strategic depth remains rooted in Pakistan's strategic culture, its implementation has changed in a way that prioritizes economic cooperation over ideological or military hegemony, representing a nuanced response to contemporary geopolitical and economic realities.

Keywords

References

بزرگزاده، مهدی و حجت الله نوری ساری (1396)، «چارچوبی برای درک سیاست خارجی پاکستان»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، دوره 9، شماره 4، صص. 133-158 قابل دسترسی در: https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.20085419.1396.9.4.5.2 (تاریخ دسترسی: 16/07/1404)
جوادی‌ارجمند، محمدجعفر (۱۳۸۸)، «تحرک‌های طالبان و تأثیر آن در روابط پاکستان، افغانستان و آمریکا»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دوره 2، شماره 3، صص 43-60 قابل دسترسی در: https://jcep.ut.ac.ir/article_19518.html (تاریخ دسترسی: 16/07/1404)
دهشیار، حسین و زهرا محمودی (1389)، «ملاحظات پاکستان در فرآیند مبارزه علیه تروریسم (2001-2008)»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، دوره 2، شماره 1، صص.108-83،  قابل دسترسی در: https://frqjournal.csr.ir/article_123516.html (تاریخ دسترسی: 16/07/1404)
رحمان، نور (1403)، «سیاست عمق راهبردی در افغانستان: ریشه‌ها، تکامل و نمودهای عملی»، مطالعات بحران جهان اسلام، دوره 10، شماره 4، صص. 112-136.
سینائی، وحید و علی‌صادق اکبری (۱۳۹۳)، «تأثیر جمعیت علمای اسلام در پاکستان بر طالبان در افغانستان»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دوره 7، شماره 1، صص. 101-120 (doi:10.22059/jcep.2014.51758)
عثمانی، ضیاالدین و سید امیر نیاکویی و رضا سیمبر (1401)، «عوامل ملی و بین‌المللیِ چالش‌های امنیتی افغانستان (2021-2008)»، پژوهش‌نامه ایرانی سیاست بین‌الملل، دوره 10، شماره 2، صص. 207-226 (doi:10.22067/irlip.2021.71578.1121)
فاطمی‌نژاد، محمد(۱۴۰۰). از تروریسم تا ضدتروریسم در پاکستان: سنجش خشونت‌ورزی، پژوهش‌های امنیت بین‌الملل، دوره ۷، شماره ۲، صص ۴۷-۶۸  
(doi: 10.29252/piaj.2020.99957)
فاطمی‌نژاد، سیداحمد و علیرضا محمدزاده (۱۳۹۷)، «بررسی جایگاه افغانستان جدید در مجموعه‌های امنیتی منطقه‌ای از آسیای مرکزی تا آسیای جنوبی»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دوره 11، شماره 2، صص. 399-416 (doi:10.22059/jcep.2019.216523.449668)
محمدعلی‌پور، فریده و علیرضا خداقلیپور و محمدولی مدرس (1399)، «فرهنگ راهبردی و سیاست خارجی پاکستان در قبال افغانستان»، پژوهش‌نامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل، دوره 9، شماره 1، صص. 269-294  (doi:10.22067/ijip.v9i1.86660)
محمدنیا، مهدی و ناصر پورحسن (1402)، «ارتش پاکستان و سیاست خارجی (مطالعه موردی: بحران کشمیر، بحران دیوراند و تروریسم)»، بحران پژوهی جهان اسلام، دوره 10، شماره 4، صص. 112-136 (doi:10.27834/CSIW.2403.1378.4.31.1)
Reference
Abbas, Syed Muhammad (2023), Afghanistan-Pakistan in a Security Puzzle (Past, Present and Future), https://viimes.org/wpcontent/uploads/2024/12/Report3_VIIMES_8Dec2024.pdf. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Afzal, Madiha (2022), Pakistan’s Ambivalent Approach toward a Resurgent Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Brookings. edu.
 (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistans-ambivalent-approach-toward-a-resurgent-tehrik-e-taliban-pakistan/). (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Ahmad, Manzoor, Naveeda Yousaf, and Zahir Shah (2011), “Dynamics of Pakistan’s Involvement in the Afghan Reconciliation Process”, Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 383-393, (doi:10.29171/azu_acku_pamphlet_ds357_6_p32_m369_2017).
Ahmad, Tariq (2022), A Case of Pakistan Investigating the Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan, Acta Pedagogia Asiana, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 1-8, https://tecnoscientifica.com/journal/apga/article/view/64. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Ahmad, Zahid Shahab, and Stuti Bhatnagar (2007), “Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations and the Indian Factor”, Pakistan Horizon, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 159-174, (doi:10.2307/41500069).
Ahmed, Ishtiaq (2015, October 23), The Unfinished Partition, The Friday Times.
Bashir, Sonia (2023), “Unraveling Pakistan-Afghanistan Strategic Relations in the Post-Us Withdrawal Era”, Margalla Papers, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 102-114, (doi:10.54690/margallapapers.27.2.178).
Benjamin, Muhammad Ali and, Nadia Zaheer Ali (2024), “Analyzing Pakistan’s Security Concerns and Strategic Depth Policy in Afghanistan”, International Journal of Contemporary Issues in Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 1548–1557, Available at: https://ijciss.org/index.php/ijciss/article/view/860 (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Choudhary, Parula (2012), “British Policy towards Afghanistan in the 19th Century”, International Research Journal of Commerce Arts and Science, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 806-812, (PDF) British Policy towards Afghanistan in the 19 th Century). (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
COAS Speech at National Defence University (2020), Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Available at: https://www.ispr.gov.pk, (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Cohen, S. P. (2004), The Idea of Pakistan, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
Cohen, Stephen P. (2001), India: Emerging Power, Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press.
Cohen, Stephen. P., and Dasgupta, SUNIL (2013), Arming without Aiming: India's Military Modernization, Rowman & Littlefield.
Fair, Christine (2014), Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of War, New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Guihong, Zhang (2003), “US Security Policy towards South Asia after September 11 and its Implications for China: A Chinese Perspective”, Strategic Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 145-171, (doi:10.1080/09700160308450081).
Haqqani, Husain (2005), Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Hussain, Zahid (2010), The Scorpion’s Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan, New York: Free Press.
International Crisis Group (2022), A New Era for Civil-Military Relations in Pakistan? Asia Report No. 322, Available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/327-pakistan-sectarian-violence.pdf(Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Jacobson, Julia (2021), “Pakistan’s Necessary Role in Afghan Peace Negotiations”, Available at: https://theowp.org/reports/pakistans-necessary-role-in-afghanpeace-negotiations/, (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Jaffrelot, Christophe (2015), The Pakistan Paradox: Instability and Resilience, Oxford University Press.
Kakar, Rafiullah (2012), “Pak-Afghan Relations: Tracing the Roots of Troubled Past (1947-2001)”, Journal of Asian Politics and History, Vol. 2, p. 125, Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342096057_Pak-Afghan_Relations_Tracing_the_Roots_of_Troubled_Past_1947-2001. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Khan, Feisal (2010), “Why Borrow Trouble for Yourself and Lend it to Neighbors? Understanding the Historical Roots of Pakistan's Afghan Policy”, Asian Affairs: An American Review, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 171-189, (doi:10.1080/00927678.2010.520570).
Khan, Ijaz (1998), “Afghanistan: A Geopolitical Study”, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 489-502, (doi:10.1080/02634939808401049).
Khan, Ijaz Ahmad (2007), “Understanding Pakistan's Pro-Taliban Afghan Policy”, Pakistan Horizon, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 141-157, (doi:10.2307/41500068).
Khan, Khalid Masoon (2015), The Strategic Depth Concept. The Nation.
Khan, Rashid (2010). “Border Conflicts and Regional Security in South Asia”, South Asian Survey, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 15–32, (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Kux, Dennis (2000), India and the United States: Estranged Democracies, 1941-1991, Diane Publishing.
Lavoy, Peter R. (2005), “Pakistan’s Strategic Culture: A Theoretical Excursion”, Strategic Insights, Vol. 4, No. 10, pp. 1–15, Available at: https://oa.mg/work/816474970. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Maley, William (2002), The Afghanistan Wars, London: Palgrave, (doi:10.1007/978-1-4039-1840-6).
Mutual Evaluation Report: Pakistan (2018), FATF, Available at: http://www.fatf-gafi.org. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Pakistan Fatalities: 2003–2017 (2018), South Asia Terrorism Portal, Available at: https://www.satp.org (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Parker, Aidan (2019), “Considering Chaos: Re-evaluating Pakistan’s Strategic Depth in Afghanistan”, Crisis Studies of the Islamic World, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 48–81, (doi:10.1080/09700161.2019.1625512).
Paul, Thazha. Varkey (2014), “The Systemic Bases of India’s Challenge to the Global Nuclear Order”, The Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 85–101, (doi:10.1080/10736709808436731).
Rasanayagam, Angelo (2003), Afghanistan: A Modern History, London: Bloomsbury Publishing.
Rashid, Ahmed (2008), Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, New York: Penguin Books.
Rizwan, Alamuddin, Rajab Taieb, and Maryam Jami (2021), Revival of a Favourable Afghanistan? Security Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan beyond 2021, Available at: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/kabul/18826.pdf. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Rubin, Michael (2002), “Who Is Responsible for the Taliban?” 1 March, Available at www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/who-responsible-talibanB (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Rubin, Michael (2002), “Who is Responsible for the Taliban”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-16, Available at: https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/meria/meria02_rum01.html. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Samad, Abdul, and Khan, Munazza (2023), “The Domino Effect: Pakistan's Economic Problems Affect Foreign Policy”, International Journal of Policy Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, Available at: https://ijpstudies.com/index.php/ijps/article/view/49. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Schaffer, Howard B. and Teresita C. Schaffer (2011), How Pakistan Negotiates with the United States: Riding the Roller Coaster, US Institute of Peace Press.
Schaffer, Teresita (2004), The U.S. and South Asia: New Priorities, Familiar Interests, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Brookings Institution Press.
The Express Tribune (2020), PM Khan in Kabul: ‘Time to Give Peace a Chance, Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1472028. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) (2021), Quarterly Report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: 1 January to 30 September 2021, Kabul: UNAMA.
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) (2021), Thirteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team (S/2021/486), United Nations Security Council.
Usman, Tehseena (2009), Indian Factor in Pak-Afghan Relations, Published by Research Journal of Area Study Center (Russia, China and Central Asia), University of Peshawar.
Waldman, Matt (2010), “The Sun in the Sky: The Relationship between Pakistan’s ISI and Afghan Insurgents”, Crisis States Research Center, LSE, Available at: https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/Assets/Documents/PDFs/csrc-discussion-papers/dp18-The-Sun-in-the-Sky.pdf. (Accessed on: 08/10/2025).
Wolf, Siegfried O. (2020), The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative, Concept, Context and Assessment, Switzerland: Springer.
Central Eurasia Studies

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 08 November 2025

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics