انقلاب شیل آمریکا و سیاست‌های تروئیکای گازی در خاورمیانه

Introduction: Energy is at the core of economic development and the advancement of global civilization, while also serving as a critical area for addressing the challenges of 21st-century. Although energy security has historically focused on oil supply, natural gas has emerged as a strategic fuel alternative in the post-Cold War era. The 21st century is now considered the "Golden Age of Natural Gas" due to its environmental benefits, as highlighted by the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to a report by major international energy institutions —including British Petroleum (BP), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)— North America's unconventional oil and gas resources are projected to rival conventional producers through 2035, changing the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Persian Gulf. The increase in unconventional hydrocarbon production, particularly in the United States and Canada, has led to what has been called the "Unconventional Gas Revolution." Since 2020, the United States has been recognized as a “game changer” in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, altering geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. This shift has significantly impacted the strategic position of conventional suppliers—particularly Russia, Iran, and Qatar—as key players in the evolving energy geopolitics of the Middle East.
Research questions: Given this background, the main question of this research is stated as follows: How has the U.S. shale revolution—particularly between 2017 and 2025—affected the policies of the Middle East’s gas troika (Russia, Iran, and Qatar)?
Research hypothesis: The proposed hypothesis claims that the U.S. shale revolution during this period changed the Russian-Iranian-led foreign policy axis from an offensive to a defensive one, leading to political and military retreat in the Middle East. At the same time, it has destabilized Qatar’s dominant position in global energy markets, while strengthening the Qatar-Turkiye axis in opposition to the former alliance. Accordingly, the independent variable is the U.S. shale oil and gas revolution, and the dependent variable is the foreign policy orientation of the gas troika in the Middle East. Moderating variables include the European Union, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and their regional allies, while intervening variables include actors such as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), OPEC + and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). The United States energy security serves as a mediating variable.
Methodology and theoretical framework: Addressing a gap in the existing literature, this study uses a mixed approach—both quantitative and qualitative—within the framework of descriptive-explanatory methodology to test the hypothesis. Data were collected mainly from two sources: primary library sources, including documents and reports from major international energy organizations and secondary sources such as books and scientific articles. In terms of methodology, data evaluation was conducted using deductive-inductive reasoning. The research first applied the theory of offensive realism and then revised the theoretical framework through case studies in energy security (inductive) and thus developed and validated the conceptual model of “offensive energy realism.”
Results and discussion: The framework of offensive energy realism provides a window into analyzing how states use energy as a tool for aggressive foreign policy. Beyond ensuring energy security, governments use energy power to shift the global balance and contain competitors. Countries with significant fossil fuel resources or advanced energy technologies often use hard-power tactics—such as military deployments, sanctions and blockades—to strengthen their geopolitical position. This trend has been particularly evident in recent U.S. behavior. The shale revolution has transformed global energy markets, making the United States the world's largest producer of oil and gas, the second-largest exporter of oil and leading exporter of natural gas by the early 2020s.
Conclusion: Aligning the assumptions of offensive energy realism with the four dimensions of energy security- including availability, affordability, accessibility, and acceptability- allows for a more structured analysis of energy-based government strategies—especially for countries that intend to turn their geo-energy position into a geopolitical advantage. From this perspective, energy-rich states pose greater threats to those with limited resources or inadequate technology. These countries often adopt offensive foreign policies, prioritizing power and national interests. The United States, taking advantage of its abundance of unconventional hydrocarbon resources, achieved cost-effectiveness in shale oil and gas production by the late 2010s. This change made the country's import-dependent energy policy a defining one after 2020, especially in the Middle East. The shifting balance between hydrocarbon exporters and importers required the U.S. to play a more active role in global energy markets, often by constraining key exporters through hard-power tools. These developments, coupled with increased access, precipitated an aggressive turn in U.S. energy policy. As a result, the United States effectively restricted Russia’s – a key member of the Middle East gas troika – access to European gas markets, using tools such as the Ukraine war and the tightening of sanctions following the annexation of Crimea. For Iran, sanctions targeted the flow of advanced technologies, particularly LNG, and accelerated the process of destroying its energy infrastructure. At the same time, Washington exploited the Arab-led blockade of Qatar to lure Asian customers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Doha. Overall, these actions significantly reduced the foreign exchange earnings of the Russia-Iran axis and gradually shifted their aggressive foreign policy stance towards a more defensive one. Based on the offensive framework of energy realism, the U.S. shale revolution demonstrates that the United States, as an independent and pivotal actor in the energy sector, has defined a long-term strategic mission aimed at maximizing national power and interests, which has led to an aggressive and assertive foreign policy in this area. This shift has fundamentally transformed the geoeconomic aspects of energy security and has structurally affected the geopolitical and geostrategic patterns of alliance, competition, and conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the U.S. position has been strengthened, while the gas troika has adopted a more passive and defensive stance. It is worth noting that with the decline in oil and gas revenues, Iran and Russia are facing serious threats in regional and global markets. This dynamic has influenced Russia-Iranian-centric Middle East policies, causing a shift towards a defensive and passive foreign policy.