ایران و سازمان همکاری شانگهای: فرصت‌ها و چالش‌ها

Introduction: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established to solve problems and confront the three problems of terrorism, extremism, and separatism, and after nearly two decades of efforts, Iran became a permanent member of the organization on September 17, 2021, at the 21st summit in the capital of Tajikistan. Although this accession is considered an important diplomatic milestone for Iran, it may also have some political implications that deserve a comprehensive analysis. Iran’s approach to international organizations has changed significantly over the years. China and Russia are both members of the United Nations Security Council, constitute a significant portion of the world’s population and are major players in the SCO. By gaining this valuable position, Iran can strengthen its influence in the region to reduce international isolation and enhance cooperation.
Research question: Using the SWOT analysis framework, this research attempts to answer the question “What are the political, legal and organizational opportunities and challenges facing Iran after full membership in the SCO?” and among these, which of the potential opportunities and challenges for Iran is greater?
Research hypothesis: The hypothesis is that there are numerous opportunities for Iran in this organization and that it will have positive effects on the country's foreign policy. However, they still exist. Furthermore, by examining the strengths and opportunities, weaknesses and challenges, we concluded that the opportunities and strengths are greater and, as a result, the benefits of cooperation outweigh the challenges, weaknesses and losses resulting from lack of cooperation.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This article uses a qualitative method and a descriptive-analytical approach. Also, the SWOT analytical model was used in this research. This analytical model examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges of the issue and finally reaches a conclusion with an overall summary.
Results and discussion: After reviewing and studying the Memorandum of Commitments of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the aim of gaining membership in the SCO, as well as the 42 Memorandums of Cooperation between the SCO member states, strengths such as: Increasing legitimacy and acceptability for Iran in the regional and international arena, granting Iran an important role and financial participation in the organization, granting the organization an active decision-making position in international and regional issues of the organization, increasing trade opportunities through land and sea routes between the member states of the organization, improving and cooperating in the field of the country's intelligence organizations, holding military exercises with key members of this organization, as well as benefiting from Iran's experiences in combating terrorism in the Middle East and the experience of combating drug trafficking in Afghanistan.
The findings also reveal some weaknesses of Iran's membership in this organization, including: Requiring Iran to to pay financial assistance to this organization may put the country under economic pressure if its economic conditions worsen. Requiring Iran to make changes in its foreign policy and align with the policies of member states may be challenging, the lack of trust between member states may lead to challenges in ensuring mutual commitment in the organization. Despite its membership in the organization, Iran continues to suffer from a perception of isolation due to conflicts and sanctions, reliance on China and Russia for economic support may limit Iran's decision-making independence.
The opportunities facing Iran after joining this organization include: Iran's influence will increase by participating in the activities and discussions of this organization. Iran can gain a stronger position in regional issues and increase its geopolitical influence. Technical and specialized cooperation is another opportunity for Iran. Iran can also benefit from the capabilities of the members of this organization in the military, security, energy and economic sectors. Also, with Iran's membership in this organization, Iran will enjoy diplomatic and international support from member states in regional disputes or negotiations during challenging times.
The research findings also indicate the following threats to Iran: The existence of an internal bureaucratic system may slow or hinder adherence to and accession to some commitments and agreements. Furthermore, domestic political dynamics may hinder Iran's ability to implement necessary reforms and align with the organization's goals. In some cases, Iran's relations with neighboring countries may create tensions within the organization. Iran's permanent membership in an organization often seen as opposed to Western influence could lead to greater Western surveillance of the country. Therefore, the findings indicate that there are more positive strengths and opportunities compared to challenges and threats, which indicates the importance of Iran's permanent membership in this organization.
Conclusion: Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization could strengthen Iran's position and increase its regional influence, which would bring economic, security, and political benefits. Iran’s permanent membership could provide broader opportunities for economic exchanges and help develop Iran's economic markets and trade opportunities. Furthermore, Iran's participation in an organization with nuclear powers may bring strategic advantages. However, to fully utilize these opportunities, it is crucial that Iran addresses and overcomes the challenges inherent in permanent membership. As a result, based on the studies conducted in this research and the examination of the opportunities and challenges of Iran's membership in this organization, the number of opportunities and strengths outweighed the weaknesses and challenges, which demonstrate the importance of regional cooperation and the positive impact of Iran's membership in this organization on Iran's international and regional decisions. Also, as the findings showed, this membership can also influence domestic policies and decisions in various areas.