نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر،
2 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction: While NATO and the European Union have been increasingly seeking to expand their influence in Central Asia, China has also significantly expanded its presence in the region in recent years. The geopolitical importance of this region made it the focal point of the “Great Game” in the 19th century and a significant arena of competition during the Cold War in the 20th century. In the 21st century, Central Asia has once again emerged as a dynamic center of hegemonic competition. Following the dissolution of the bipolar international system and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the unipolar order led by the United States enabled the gradual expansion of NATO and the European Union into the post-Soviet space. The strategic centrality of this region as a geopolitical axis makes a thorough understanding of the evolving power dynamics, especially for regional actors such as Iran, which seeks to enhance its bargaining power in the international system. Therefore, this study emphasizes the necessity of analyzing interactions among major powers in the region, especially regarding Iran's potential strategic engagement.
Research question: The main question of the research is: How has the European Union responded to China's expanding influence in Central Asia?
Research hypothesis: This hypothesis posits that the EU aims to maintain a strategic balance and employ “smart containment” in response to China’s increasing presence as a means of mitigating the consequences of the decline of US hegemony in the region.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This study employs a qualitative methodology with an analytical-explanatory approach, relying on documentary and library-based research. Drawing on documentary and library research, this article examines the evolving strategic competition between the European Union and China. The theoretical foundation of this study is based on offensive Neo-realism, which emphasizes the efforts of states to maximize power in an anarchic international system. According to Mearsheimer, offensive realism is based on five main assumptions: the anarchy of the international system, the offensive capabilities of great powers, uncertainty among states about each other's intentions, survival as the primary goal of great powers, and Great powers as rational and logical actors. Ultimately, combining these assumptions, Mearsheimer concludes that the most effective way to ensure survival in the anarchic environment of the international system is to become the strongest power, that is, a hegemon. However, not all states can maximize their relative power simultaneously. Therefore, as long as anarchy persists, the international system will remain an arena of security competition. Within this framework, China's survival in the anarchic international system can only be ensured by gaining a hegemonic position; this dynamic has transformed the Central Asian region into a security competition arena between great powers. Indeed, according to Mearsheimer, what makes the future threat from China so worrisome is the possibility that China could become more powerful and dangerous than any of the potential hegemons the United States faced in the 20th century.
Results and discussion: Qualitative analysis reveals a direct correlation between the rise of Chinese hegemony in Central Asia and the decline of American hegemony. China’s growing influence – as manifested through institutional mechanisms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and infrastructure initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – has coincided with a relative decline in US dominance in the region. As a result, the European Union, in coordination with its strategic ally, the United States, has adopted policies aimed at containing China's influence through a strategy of maintaining a decisive balance of power. These developments reflect a broader hegemonic transition in the region, in which the EU and NATO are acting in concert to contain Chinese dominance and preserve Western geopolitical interests.
Conclusion: The present study identifies and analyzes two core dynamics -“the rise of Chinese hegemony” and “the fall of U.S. hegemony” - as fundamental drivers of the EU's strategic stance in Central Asia. This study presents a new analytical framework by conceptualizing EU policy as an attempt to maintain a delicate balance of power aimed at preserving the remnants of US hegemony. The findings suggest that EU leaders, as key stakeholders in NATO, have institutionalized the strategic perception of China's rise as an independent variable and the decline of the United States as an intervening variable. As a result, EU policies have been shaped around the concept of “smart containment” of China, operationalized through selective participation in U.S.-led geopolitical projects, such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), as well as related initiatives. These strategies are designed not only to prevent the rise of Chinese hegemony but also to prevent the complete erosion of US strategic superiority.
However, the study also highlights an inherent paradox: the EU's efforts to strengthen the security of the West through the balance of power inadvertently reduce the security of the East, reinforcing the cyclical logic of strategic competition. China is unlikely to remain passive in the face of Western containment. Instead, it is set to strengthen regional alliances, particularly through the China-Iran-Russia trilateral axis, and seek to rebalance the regional balance of power in favor of the East, as well as localize its security architecture. By doing so, China aims to challenge Western aggression and present a counter-narrative to American and European interference in Asia. Ultimately, the EU's strategic response to the dual realities of China's rise and the United States' decline is characterized by an alignment with U.S.-led containment strategies. This reflects a broader reconfiguration of the international order centered on hegemonic transition and competitive multipolarity.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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