پیامدهای بحران اوکراین بر اتحادیۀ اقتصادی اوراسیایی و راهبردهای آن

Introduction: The Ukrainian war in 2022 has become a protracted geopolitical crisis with far-reaching political and economic consequences for regional and global orders. The Eurasian Economic Union, as a regional bloc deeply intertwined with Russia, has faced unprecedented challenges in the wake of the conflict. Using a three-level analytical framework (national, regional, and international), this article examines the multifaceted impacts of the Ukrainian crisis on the Eurasian Economic Union. Politically, the war has exacerbated internal asymmetries and strategic divergences among member states, particularly in foreign policy alignments and their perceptions of sovereignty. Economically, the crisis has disrupted intra-union trade, weakened investment flows, and exposed vulnerabilities in food security, energy supply, and financial connectivity. Furthermore, this study assesses the adaptive strategies adopted by the Eurasian Economic Union, such as the establishment of the Eurasian Reinsurance Company and efforts to diversify economic partnerships to ensure institutional resilience and maintain the momentum of integration.
Research question: What political and economic consequences has the Ukrainian crisis had for the Eurasian Economic Union and what adaptive strategies has the Union adopted to achieve economic and institutional integration in the Eurasian region?
Research hypothesis: The Ukrainian war has significantly disrupted the political and economic dynamics of the Eurasian Economic Union and exposed structural asymmetries rooted in the varying degrees of dependence of member states on Russia. Despite these challenges, the Union has implemented adaptive strategies aimed at increasing intra-union trade, strengthening institutional initiatives, and improving economic coordination. These measures seek not only to maintain cohesion but also to facilitate long-term integration, resilience to external shocks, and the capacity to balance divergent national interests while promoting regional stability and sustainable development.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This study uses a historical-comparative approach combined with the institutionalist framework of international relations. This approach allows us to examine how institutions shape state behavior and foster cooperation over time. Focusing on the Eurasian Economic Union, institutionalism helps analyze the union's capacities and limitations in responding to the Ukrainian crisis, maintaining regional cohesion, and facilitating coordinated political action among member states.
Results and discussion: The Ukrainian crisis poses a major challenge to the Eurasian Economic Union, exposing structural and systemic issues that hinder deeper integration among member states. Politically, Russia’s dominant position creates asymmetries that force countries such as Kazakhstan and Belarus to adjust their policies, thereby straining cohesion within the union. Divergent approaches, including Belarus’s outspoken support for Russia in contrast to the more cautious positions of other members, highlight the ongoing tension between political trust and economic integration. In response, member states have increasingly diversified their foreign policies, reduced dependence on Moscow, and engaged with external powers to secure strategic autonomy and maintain balanced regional relations. Economically, the conflict has disrupted global supply chains, fueled food insecurity, and caused sharp increases in energy costs, which in turn have reduced competitiveness and slowed industrial growth. Companies closely tied to Russian trade have faced difficulties in accessing alternative markets and sourcing critical inputs. The Eurasian Economic Union has implemented comprehensive strategies to mitigate the effects of sanctions, such as parallel import mechanisms, settlements in national currencies, cooperation with BRICS countries to circumvent SWIFT restrictions, and reforms in customs and tariffs. In addition, the establishment of the Eurasian Insurance Company, investment in logistics infrastructure, and development of strong domestic food security frameworks strengthened the economic resilience of the union. In addition, coordinated policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises, diversification of energy sources, and increased regional financial cooperation have helped reduce vulnerabilities. Taken together, these measures not only support “Sustainable Development Goals” but also strengthen functional integration, enabling the Eurasian Economic Union to weather ongoing geopolitical fluctuations while maintaining regional economic cohesion, stability, and long-term strategic coordination.
Conclusion: The Ukrainian crisis has posed significant challenges to the cohesion and strategic direction of the Eurasian Economic Union, exposing fundamental political differences among member states and exacerbating external pressures from Western sanctions and geopolitical tensions. Despite these obstacles, the Union has demonstrated remarkable economic resilience, supported by the growth of intra-union trade, the diversification of foreign policy strategies, and the changing strategic position of members such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan as emerging logistical and economic hubs within the region. The Union’s capacity to maintain integrity and functional cooperation will largely depend on its ability to balance divergent national interests, further strengthen economic and institutional cooperation, and enhance policy coordination mechanisms. In addition, proactive investment in infrastructure, the development of robust supply chains, and regional financial collaboration will be crucial to reducing vulnerabilities and ensuring long-term stability. Continuous adjustment to internal asymmetries and external shocks will determine the success of the Eurasian Economic Union in consolidating regional cohesion, fostering sustainable economic growth, and strengthening its strategic relevance in an increasingly complex global environment.