تحلیل محتوای تحولات الگوی توسعه در برنامه‌های اقتصادی فدراسیون روسیه

Introduction: The quest for an optimal development model has been a central and enduring theme throughout Russian history. From the Westernizing ambitions of the Romanov Tsars in the 16th century to the centralized five-year plans of the Soviet era, the country's economic strategy has continually evolved in response to domestic ambitions and external pressures. The post-Soviet transition to a market economy, and then the era of state capitalism under Vladimir Putin from 2000 onwards, marked more significant changes. However, the profound political and economic turmoil of the past decade, marked by rising tensions with the West since 2014 and culminating in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has potentially led to the most rapid and strategic shift in Russian economic policies to date. This period of exogenous shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and severe international sanctions, has exposed significant vulnerabilities, challenged the coherence between official strategic documents and operational plans, and shifted the national economic discourse decisively towards a "resistance economy" (anti-sanctions economy) model. This research is based on the theoretical perspective of systems theory, which provides a robust framework for analyzing this development. In this framework, the Russian political economy is conceptualized as a complex system operating within the broader metasystem of the international environment. External shocks- such as pandemics, war, and sanctions - are analyzed as disruptive inputs that destabilize the equilibrium of the system. In response, the system produces policy outputs - new economic strategies and development programs, adaptive mechanisms to restore stability and ensure its survival. This perspective allows us to understand the evolution of the Russian development model not as a linear progression but as a dynamic, iterative process of systemic adaptation to intense external pressures. As a result, the transformation of the structure of the economic model structure in the Russian Federation has emerged as a complex and vital issue that requires in-depth research. By examining official Russian development documents, this study aims to systematically extract and analyze the pattern of changing perspectives of the Russian government.
Research question: The main question that arises is how unforeseen crises have caused the development outlook in Russia to shift towards a resistance economy model.
Research hypothesis: The hypothesis is that under the unforeseen crises of recent years, Russian policymakers have defined the country's ideal development model as one aligned with the principles of a resistance economy.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This qualitative study, using systematic content analysis, examines policy documents, strategic roadmaps, and government reports related to economic development published on the official website of the Government of the Russian Federation. This research covers three distinct and crucial time periods: the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019), the pandemic crisis (2020-2021), and the period after the invasion of Ukraine (2022-2023). The collected textual data are carefully coded and thematically analyzed using ATLAS.ti software, facilitating structured and repeatable identification of emerging patterns and changes in policy discourse. The analysis is conceptually guided by the framework of systems theory. This perspective assumes that profound external shocks-such as a global pandemic, geopolitical conflict, and international sanctions-act as disruptive inputs that destabilize the existing system, Russia's established model of economic governance.
Results and discussion: The findings of this analysis show that the Russian Federation has gradually adopted a set of adaptive and flexible policy approaches in direct response to the successive crises it has faced. A clear evolutionary path is evident over three distinct periods. In the pre-pandemic era (2018-2019), policy discourse was largely focused on fostering broad-based economic growth and deepening international engagement, with an emphasis on global value chain integration and foreign investment as key drivers of development. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) acted as a critical juncture and prompted a significant rethink. The policy has shifted significantly from purely growth-oriented criteria to addressing acute domestic social vulnerabilities. Key themes that emerged included reducing social inequality, ensuring public health security, and strengthening sustainable domestic supply chains for essential goods. This period marked a nascent stage of resilience-building, where the government began to prioritize domestic social stability as a prerequisite for long-term economic security. This evolutionary path definitively reached its peak in the period following the invasion of Ukraine (2022-2023). Faced with unprecedented external pressure from comprehensive international sanctions, the policy framework shifted definitively towards an explicit “resistance economy” model. Analysis of government documents from this phase reveals a clear emphasis on strategic self-sufficiency, a sharp acceleration of import substitution programs in critical sectors (such as technology, manufacturing, and agriculture), and a systematic policy of reducing dependence on foreign financial systems and markets. The vocabulary of official strategy became saturated with terms such as "economic sovereignty", "technological independence", and "structural adaptation". Discussion of these findings strongly supports the research hypothesis. The evidence suggests that each exogenous crisis-the pandemic and then the war has acted as a powerful catalyst, successively exposing specific and increasing systemic vulnerabilities. The pandemic exposed the fragility of social structures and just-in-time supply chains, while war and sanctions exposed the profound dangers of deep integration into Western-dominated economic and financial systems. In response, Russian policymakers have been forced to continually redefine the country’s economic priorities.
Conclusion: The study concludes that a series of unforeseen crises acted as the main catalyst, leading to the rapid evolution of Russia's economic development model away from globalized liberal patterns and towards a distinct doctrine of resistance economy. This profound shift underscores the growing strategic priority of resilience-based frameworks, which are increasingly seen as essential for sovereign states to maintain systemic stability and operational autonomy in the face of intensifying external shocks. The case of Russia provides a compelling and timely example of the core tenets of this model. In practice, this has manifested itself as a strategic prioritization of strengthening critical domestic infrastructure - particularly in energy, logistics, and finance - to reduce single points of failure.