نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد، گروه روابط بینالملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بینالملل، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction: Since Pakistan's independence in 1947, it has shown a persistent sensitivity to the security and stability of Afghanistan, a concern deeply rooted in its perception of India as a regional threat. This concern has been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s "Strategic Depth" doctrine, a framework for foreign policy designed to use Afghanistan as a buffer zone to balance Indian influence and enhance Pakistan’s defensive capabilities. Over the decades, this doctrine has undergone significant evolution, reflecting changes in geopolitical realities, regional dynamics, and domestic pressures. These changes are particularly evident in three distinct historical phases: the Cold War period (1950s–1980s), the post-Cold War era of the 1990s, and the contemporary period after 2015, with a notable turning point after the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Understanding the evolution of this policy is critical not only for analyzing Pakistan’s foreign relations but also for understanding the broader security and geostrategic complexities of South and Southwest Asia. The interaction of historical rivalries, such as the enduring tensions with India over Kashmir and the dispute over the Durand Line with Afghanistan, alongside the emerging economic imperatives and international pressures, has continually changed Pakistan’s strategic approach towards its western neighbor.
Research question: How has Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan, centered on the Strategic Depth doctrine, changed from the 1950s to 2025?
Research hypothesis: This study proposes a hypothesis that outlines three evolutionary stages of this doctrine: Pakistan’s Strategic Depth policy was geopolitically driven during the Cold War, focusing on countering Soviet influence and Indian presence; in the 1990s, it combined geopolitics with ideology by supporting the Taliban to secure a friendly regime in Kabul and after the Taliban’s resurgence in 2021, it shifted towards a geoeconomic orientation, prioritizing economic cooperation and regional stability over military and ideological dominance. This hypothesis suggests that the adaptations of this doctrine reflect Pakistan’s responses to changing internal and external circumstances, including security challenges, economic imperatives, and the emergence of new strategic partnerships.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This research uses an explanatory methodology to test the proposed hypothesis. This approach integrates historical analysis with contemporary policy assessment, drawing on primary and secondary sources. Historical data from the Cold War era and the 1990s are examined to trace the geopolitical and ideological foundations of the Strategic Depth doctrine. Developments since 2015, especially after 2021, are analyzed to assess the shift towards geoeconomic priorities. The study uses qualitative methods, including content analysis of policy documents, official statements, and scholarly literature, to identify patterns of change in Pakistan’s strategic behavior. Furthermore, the research contextualizes these developments within broader regional and international dynamics, such as NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, China’s growing influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, and India’s expanding role in Afghan affairs. This multifaceted methodology ensures a comprehensive understanding of how and why Pakistan’s foreign policy has evolved over the time period covered.
Results and discussion: This analysis shows that Pakistan's strategic depth doctrine has undergone a fundamental transformation, influenced by a combination of internal vulnerabilities and external pressures. During the Cold War, this policy was rooted in geopolitical imperatives, as Pakistan aligned itself with Western powers to counter Soviet influence in Afghanistan while using the country as a defensive buffer zone against India. In the 1990s, the doctrine became a combination of geopolitics and ideology, as Pakistan supported the Taliban to establish a pro-Islamabad regime in Kabul, to secure its western borders and limit India’s regional position. However, this had significant negative consequences, including increased domestic extremism, instability in tribal areas, and international isolation. After 2015 and especially after the resurgence of the Taliban in 2021, the doctrine shifted towards a geoeconomic focus. Key findings suggest that factors such as the destabilizing effects of protracted militancy, economic crises, global diplomatic pressures, and the emergence of China as a strategic partner have forced Pakistan to reconsider its approach. The withdrawal of NATO and the return of the Taliban were a turning point in testing this shift, making a move away from traditional security-oriented strategies toward fostering economic interdependence and regional stability. Evidence of this shift includes a reduction in military support for proxy forces, an increased emphasis on trade and connectivity projects with Afghanistan, and a pragmatic acceptance of India’s legitimate interests in the region, provided that these interests do not directly undermine Pakistan’s security.
Conclusion: The study concludes that although the concept of strategic depth remains rooted in Pakistan's strategic culture, its implementation has changed in a way that prioritizes economic cooperation over ideological or military hegemony, representing a nuanced response to contemporary geopolitical and economic realities
کلیدواژهها [English]
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