جایگاه منابع انرژی دریای خزر در راهبرد آسیای مرکزی و قفقازی اتحادیۀ اروپا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه تهران

2 کارشناس ارشد روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

اتحادیة اروپا به‌دلیل ذخایر و تولید اندک از یک‌سو و مصرف بالا از سوی دیگر، به میزان زیادی به واردات نفت خام و گاز طبیعی وابسته است. تسلط روسیه بر منابع و مسیر‌های تأمین انرژی سبب ناخرسندی اروپا و تلاش این کشور‌ها برای تنوع‌بخشی به منابع تأمین انرژی از جمله کشور‌های بی‌نیاز از نفت و گاز آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز شده است. سؤال اصلی این نوشتار این است که چه عاملی سبب ارتقای جایگاه منطقة آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز در سیاست‌های اتحادیة اروپا شده است؟ در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که راهبرد کاهش وابستگی اروپا به نفت و گاز روسیه، سبب ارتقای جایگاه این منطقه در سیاست‌های اتحادیة اروپا شده است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات، روش کتابخانه‌ای و اسنادی و همچنین استفاده از منابع اینترنتی است. نتایج مطالعات این نوشتار نشان می‌دهد که با تنوع خطوط انرژی به‌وسیلة اروپا، اهمیت و جایگاه کشور‌های آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز در سیاست خارجی اتحادیة اروپا نه تنها افزایش ‌یافته بلکه سبب نگرانی روسیه شده است؛ زیرا انرژی نقش مهمی را در توسعة اقتصادی روسیه بازی می‌کند و این کشور به درآمد فروش آن به اروپا نیاز دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Status of Caspian Sea Energy Resources in the Strategies of European Union on Central Asia and Caucasus

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bahareh Sazmand 1
  • Saeedeh Shams 2
1 Associate Professor of Regional Studies, University of Tehran, Iran
2 M.A. of Regional Studies, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Security of energy is the major concern of the world, especially the large industrial countries. Countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus are the most important countries in the field of energy resources and energy transfer. Of the eight countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan has in total 3.2 percent crude oil reserves and about 14 percent of the world's natural gas reserves. However, there are vast unexplored regions of these countries and the possibility of further increases in hydrocarbon reserves. According to the International Energy Agency predictions, the four country crude oil production will grow significantly in the next two decades. This increase may be resulted from the development of the existing fields and the exploitation of new oil fields in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
European Union as one of the great powers in global system needs to have security and economic stability, competitiveness in the global economy, and maintaining its status as an economic power. For this purpose, natural resources of energy in Central Asia and Caucasus are as supplier and transit route for access to a huge market. Therefore, this can link the Europe to Asia and China.
In fact, the EU is seeking to get its energy security and reduce internal and external factors. Internal factors are the increase in energy prices, decrease in production in the North Sea, increase in concerns about the ability of Europe future energy requirements. The external factors are tension increase in the relationship with global demand by emerging powers such as China and India, uncertainty in the energy-producing regions such as the Middle East, and Russian willingness to utilize energy for political purposes. Due to dependence of Europe on Russian energy, energy security of the region is faced with serious challenges. The problem of energy security in the region will intensify the growing demand of energy in Europe in the future. Thus, the European Union is vulnerable because of the reliance on Russia as the dominant provider of gas. Thus, the Central Asia and the Caucasus is considered as a potential area of oil and gas supply and transit route for Caspian energy to Europe.
Russia is one of the world major oil and gas producers and exporters. Economic growth due to high oil and gas production rate and increase in the prices of these products has been steady. In 2011, Russia was the second producer of oil (after Saudi Arabia) and the second-largest producer of natural gas. Given that about half of the natural gas and 30% of the oil imported into Europe comes from Russia and the growing dependence of EU on Russian energy with long-term agreements between Europe and Russia, some researchers predict that Russia would use this tool to influence the foreign policy and economic policy of EU.
Therefore, there are various factors that make the EU to pay attention to Central Asia and the Caucasus. This area has an importance in EU grant strategy. The rich energy resources of Central Asia and the Caucasus could be helpful for the European states, on the one hand, and also reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas, on the other hand.
The European Union, due to low oil and gas reserves in one hand and high consumption on the other is depending on the imports of gas and oil. A major part of European energy needs are importing from Russia. Thus, this (Russian domination over supply sources and routes) caused Europe discontent and its efforts to diversify energy supplies. The Caucasus and Central Asia is one of the areas located in proper geographic position for Europe. This region is rich of oil and gas resources and also considered as a key route to transfer Caspian resources to European markets. Due to an increase in global concern about energy security during recent years, the European Union paid more attention to this region. This increasing attention to the region has also increased the Russia’s concern and confusion, because energy plays an important role in Russia's economic development and it also needs to the income in selling it to Europe.
 Therefore, the goal of this present research is to find the reasons that make the region more important for Europe for the resources and alternative energy routes. Hence, the main question is that which factors can improve the position of Central Asia and the Caucasus in the European Union policies? In response to the question we review this hypothesis that the EU strategy to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas has improved the region’s stance (Central Asia and the Caucasus) in the EU policies.
The paper consists of two parts, in the first part; we review the reasons that increased the importance of Central Asia and the Caucasus in the strategy for European Union in terms of two factors: the rich energy resources of the region and the efforts to reduce dependence on Russia. In the second part, EU multilateral policy in the Energy Charter and gas and oil transportation will be reviewed. For this purpose, the diversification of the supply has become a key element of EU strategies. Thus, we survey this multilateral policy and review Energy Charter Treaty, Nabucco Pipeline Project, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Gas Pipeline, Trans Adriatic, Trans Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP), Trans Caspian Gas Pipeline, and AIOCS.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • : Caspian Sea
  • Central Asia and Caucasus
  • Energy Security
  • EU
  • Russia
 1. Amir Ahmadian, B. (2006), "Oil and Security in the Caucasus". Central Asia and CaucasusStudies Quarterly, Vol.4, No.56, pp. 5-32.
 2. Barysch, Katinka. (2010 ), ” Should the Nabucco Pipeline Project be Shelved?”;  Policy Brief: Center‌ European Reform; p. 1-2.
http://www.transatlanticacademy.org, (Accessed on: 22/9/2013. )
3. Belkin, Paul. (2008), The Energy European Union‘s Energy Security Challenges; Congressional Research Service; CRS Report for Congress.
4. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. (2015), 64th Edition, pp.20-22. http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview#Bpstats, (Accessed on: 18/1/2015. )
5. Energy Charter, the Energy Charter Treaty, (2013),
, http://www.energycharter.org/process/energy-charter-treaty-1994/energy-charter-treaty/, (Accessed on: 25/6/2013). 
6. Eueotopics, (2009), “A Breakthrough for Nabucco”:
7. Faghani, H. (2009), "The Growing Role of Energy in Europe Union's Foreign Policy", Monthly Events Analysis, No 230, pp. 58-61.
8. Green Paper, (2012), Toward a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supplies, www.http://europa,eu.int , (Accessed on: 5/22/2013). 
9. Grewe, Hartmut. (2006), Energies Icherheit Als Strategisches Ziel: Anforderungen an Einen Energiem Benpolitik; Konra Adenauer Stiftung; Analysen und Argumente, No.36;  p. 7.
10. Hadi Nejad Hosseinian, M. (2009), "The Current State of the Oil Industry, Challenges and Future Solutions", Newspapers-the World Economy, No.1849, (Accessed on :7/21/2009. )
11. Heydari, Mohammad Ali. (2009), "Europe's Energy Security and Trans-Regional Actors," Central Asia and Caucasus Studies, Vol.2, No. 66, p. 23-47.
12. Internatinal Energy Agency IEA Statistics, (2013),
13. Kiyani, David (2007), "Russian Energy Policy in the Union of Europe", Journal of Politics, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 181-205.
14. Kusznir Bremen, Julia. (2013), “ TAP, Nabucco West, and South Stream  Caucasus Analytical Digest, Vol. 1, No.47, pp.343-357.
15. Lcas, E. (2008), the New Cold War: Haw the Kremlin Menaces Both Russia and the West, London: Bloomsbury.
16. Linkohr. (2007), Europa  auf Dem Wegzueinergemeinsamen Energiestrategie, http://www.linkohr.de /2006 _10_05%20.doc abgerufen am 04.05. p: 18, (Accessed on: 10/5/2014).
17. Livanios, Anthony. (2013), “The Conundrum of the Southern Gas Corridor :What Are the Risks for Europe and Azerbaijan?”, Paris:  Actuelles de l’Ifri.
19. Mirtaher, SR. (2012), "Critics of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline", http://www.irinn.ir/news/420, (Accessed on: 09/27/2014).
20. Mojtahedzade P. (2008), "Caspian on the Crossroads of Conflict and Cooperation: Review  the ways of Iran and the Central Asian states", Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 15, No. 3-4, pp. 165-194.
21. Monagham, Andrew. (2006), “ Russia EU Relation: AN Emerging Energy Security Dilemma “, The Russia Research Network, London; Research Associate at the Conflict Studies Research Centre, Defence Academy of the UK .
22. Mousavi Shafaei, Seyed Massoud Souri and Amir Mohammad. (2009), "Russia and Europe: Competing on Nabucco Energy Project", Strategic Report, Institute of Strategic Studies Foreign Policy Studies, No. 250, pp. 1-5.
23. Pielbags, Andris. )2008(, “Europe’s Energy Future: the New Industrial Revolution” http://www.energy.eu/newa/Europes_Energy_Future_the_new_Industrial_Revolution.ppf, (Accessed on: 1/10/2009).  
24. Rustamov, Rufat. (2013), Political Assessment of Azerbaijani Natural Gas Pipeline Routes to Europe,  Research Centre for East European Studies: the University of Bremen.
25. Schultz, Richards. (2008), New Approaches in Security, Translated by Mohammad Ali Motaghinejad, Vol. 1, Tehran: Center for Strategic Studies.
26. Shadivand, Gh. (2012), Europe Union Approach towards Crude Oil Reserves and Natural Gas in Central Asia and the Caucasus: Opportunities and Challenges that lie Iran Deputy Oil Ministry Planning, Monthly Exploration and Production, No. 98. pp. 40-34.
27. Socor, Vladimir. (2012), “Shaky Foundations of Caspian Sea Rival Gas transmissionlines to EU”,  
28. Solana, Javier. (2003), “A Secure Europe in a Better World: European Security Strategy”, Brussels..
29. Stamouli, Nektaria. (2013), Greek PM Hails TAP Gas Pipeline Award; The Wall Street Journal,http://online.wsj.com/article/, (Accessed on: 15/6/2014).
30. Statistical Review of World Energy; British Petroleum, (2006), www.rrojasdatabank.info/bpstats2006.pdf.(Accessed on: 5/8/2014).
31. U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Geological Survey. (2013), https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12931, (Accessed on: 12/20/2015).
32. Umbach, Frank. (2003), Nuchear Energy Issues – Global Dimensions and Security Challenges; DGPA; p. 24.
33. Vahidi, Musa al-Reza. (2006), "Energy: Factor of Development, the Gap between Russia and Europe", Central Asia and Caucasus Studies Quarterly, Vol.4, No. 56, pp. 71-90.
34. Wisniewski, Jaroslaw. (2011),” EU Energy Diversification Policy and the Case of South Caucasus”, Political Perspectives, Vol.5, No.2, pp. 58-79.
35. Yılmaz,Şuhnaz, Tahir Kılavuz, M. (2012), “Restoring Brotherly Bonds Turkish-Azerbaijani Energy Relations”, Ponars Eurasia Policy Memo, Vol.6, No. 240, pp. 1-4.
36. Zargar, A. (2007), "Regional Conflicts in Central Asia and the Caucasus," Central Asia and Caucasus Studies Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 60, pp. 117-131.