مطالعۀ شاخص‌های ‌توسعه‌ای کشورهای ساحلی خزر در فرایند همگرایی منطقه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد بین‌الملل، مؤسسۀ مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی

2 استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکدۀ مطالعات جهان دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار اقتصاد بین‌الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد آستارا

چکیده

مؤلفه‌ها ‌و پیش‌زمینه‌های منطقه‌گر‌ایی در دنیا متنوع است؛ اما همه از عوامل ‌و شرایط مشابهی برخوردارند که از آن‌ها به این مؤلفه‌ها می‌توان اشاره کرد: جغرافیا، اندازۀ اقتصاد، اشتراک‌های فرهنگی، به‌ویژه ارادۀ سیاسی. استفاده از ظرفیت‌های موجود و توسعۀ روابط، همکاری‌ها و روابط همه‌جانبه با کشورهای ساحلی خزر سرلوحۀ روابط منطقه‌ای ایران بوده است، به‌گونه‌ای که در تصمیم‌سازی‌های سیاستی، توسعۀ روابط و مناسبات با این کشورها اهمیت فراوانی یافته است. این مهم با برنامه‌ریزی و برخورداری از مؤلفه‌های اقتصاد کلان بین‌الملل، مناسب کشورهای حوزۀ خزر نمود شایان توجهی پیدا است. در نوشتار حاضر تلاش شده است تا به روش توصیفی‌تحلیلی و تطبیقی‌کتابخانه‌ای در قالب نظریه‌های همگرایی ‌و منطقه‌گرایی، ابعاد اثرگذاری مؤلفه‌های اقتصاد کلان بین‌المللی این کشورها بر توسعۀ همکاری‌های منطقه‌ای در فرایند تکاملی منطقه‌‌گرایی بیان شود. در واقع نظر به اهمیت فراوان توسعۀ روابط و همکاری‌های منطقه‌ای برای ایران به‌دنبال پاسخ‌گویی به این پرسش هستیم که مؤلفه‌های اقتصاد کلان بین‌الملل چگونه می‌تواند در فرایند تکاملی منطقه‌گرایی و همگرایی ایران با این کشورها اثرگذار باشد؟ پاسخ به این پرسش، آن است که استفاده از ظرفیت‌های اقتصاد کلان بین‌المللی گامی بنیادین در توسعۀ روابط ‌و گسترش همکاری‌ها و روابط درون‌منطقه‌ای ‌و بین‌منطقه‌ای ایران و این کشورها بوده است و در صورت جدیت و ارادۀ دو طرف در فراهم‌کردن زیرساخت‌های همه‌جانبه‌ و ظرفیت‌های نهادی ‌‌و در پی آن افزایش جریان مبادلات تجاری دوجانبه و منطقه‌ای، می‌توان آن را نقطه‌عطفی در فرایند تکاملی همگرایی منطقه‌ای ایران با این کشورها دانست.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Study of Development Indicators of Caspian Sea Region (CSR) Countries in the Regional Convergence Process

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mir Abdollah Hosseini 1
  • Bahram Amir Ahmadian 2
  • Mehran Nasirzad 3
1 Assistant Professor of International Economics, Institute for Business Studies and Research
2 Assistant Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Global Studies, University of Tehran
3 Assistant Professor of International Economics, Islamic Azad University, Astara Branch
چکیده [English]

 
In the age of globalization and the Regional trade integrations (RTIs) of the world economy, economic development is not just a national issue and the states, to achieve the desired level of national development, have also to avail themselves of existing regional and international resources and opportunities. How to benefit from regional and international resources is one of the most significant questions facing all states, particularly developing countries including Caspian Sea Region (CSR) & Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) member countries. This very significance of regional and international resources has resulted in a growing interest in the regional economic integration (REI) during the last decades. Nowadays, almost all countries take part in some kind of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in its various stages of development and many countries enjoy the membership of a handful of RTAs. And it is reported that nearly 60% of international trade flows within these arrangements.
Having substantial potential, most CSR/ ECO member countries also have been long pushing for the establishment of regional economic and trade. These efforts imply an interest on the side of CSR/ ECO countries. However, despite these efforts, no commensurate progress has been made. For example, as to the ECO itself, during the five decades since its inception, it has not made a significant breakthrough. It appears that, under the circumstances, it is not feasible to establish an efficient economic and trade arrangement embracing all ECO Members and taking an incremental or step-by-step approach would probably be more successful. Thus, the most practical way to achieve the long-term goal of "sustainable regional development" would be to create an active nucleus of ECO member countries with more capacity, interest and coordination for economic and trade cooperation which other countries can join later.
Nowadays, the world experience different levels of regional economic integration in different regions. In the region surrounding Iran, also, there exist three regional economic arrangements called ECO, CIS, and CSR which can be considered as Iran's potential natural trade partners (NTP). At first, there seems to be clear differences among the member states of the three arrangements, including, inter alia, incongruous economic structures, uneven human/ economic development, varying political systems, and ethnic and cultural diversity.
In the following article however, we have examined the feasibility of establishing an initial effective core for economic integration in the region. To this end, as all of the arrangements are not efficient economic actors, we have to seek countries enjoying the minimum international macroeconomic capabilities necessary to constitute the initial core. The following article consists of several parts follows: introduction, International Relations (IR) theoretical literature on economic integration, international macroeconomic variables & the regional core, selection of variables/ countries, the methodology of country/ variable ranking, ranking results for feasibility assessment and conclusion.
The components and backgrounds of regionalism are diverse in the world, but they all come from a range of factors and conditions that can be cited by factors such as geography, the size of the economy, cultural similarities, and, in particular, political will. The use of existing capacities and the development of relations, co-operation and relations with the Caspian littoral states have been at the forefront of regional interactions of Iran, so that in policy making, the development of relations with these countries has become more and more important.
This significant development has been achieved with the planning and implementation of international macroeconomic components of the Caspian Sea Region (CSR). In this paper, we try to study the comparative-analytical and comparative-library-based method and the convergence and regionalism theories, the dimensions of the impact of the macroeconomic components of these countries on the development of regional cooperation in the process of regional development. In fact, given the importance of developing regional relations, cooperation and regional ties to Iran, we are looking to answer the question of how international macroeconomic components of can be effective in the evolutionary process of regionalism and convergence of Iran with these countries. The answer to this question is that the use of the capacities of international economic actors is a fundamental step in developing relations and expanding cooperation and inter-regional relations between Iran and these countries. In the event of the seriousness and determination of the parties in providing comprehensive infrastructures and institutional capacities and subsequently increasing the flow of bilateral and regional trade, it can be considered a turning point in the evolutionary process of regional integration of Iran with these countries. According to the present research results, in terms of economic capabilities and trade relations, Caspian Sea Region Countries (CSR): Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan are the most eligible countries to constitute the initial core for regional economic integration.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Caspian Sea Region Countries (CSR)
  • Development Indicators
  • International Macroeconomics
  • Iran
  • Regional Development
  • Regional Trade Partner
  • Regionalization
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