ساخت و اعتباربخشی مدل روابط خارجی ایران و جمهوری آذربایجان و استخراج متغیرهای خطرپذیری، بحرانی، راهبردی و تنظیمی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، روابط بین‌الملل، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی

2 استادیار، گروه روابط بین‌الملل، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی

3 استادیار گروه روابط بین‌الملل، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی

چکیده

هویت جدید ایران پس از انقلاب اسلامی و جمهوری آذربایجان پس از فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی، منجر به کنشگری نوینی از آن‌ها در منطقه شده است که موردتوجه سیاست‌مداران و پژوهشگران بوده است. بررسی ادبیات پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بیشتر پژوهش‌های انجام‌شده در تبیین روابط دو کشور، تک‌بعدی، خطی، بدون بنیان نظری و مهم‌تر از آن، نارسایی­‌های روش‌شناختی دارند. در پاسخ به این پرسش که روابط خارجی دو کشور چه متغیرهایی دارد و ماهیت و شیوۀ رفتار این متغیرها در نظام روابط دو کشور چگونه است، این نوشتار تلاشی نوآورانه برای ساخت و اعتباربخشی مدل روابط دو کشور با رویکرد تلفیقی است. در گام کیفی مطالعه، به کمک روش سندپژوهی و تحلیل محتوا 33 متغیر مؤثر در روابط دو کشور استخراج شد. در گام کمی، به کمک تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی و نرم‌افزار اس‌پی‌اس‌اس، 20 متغیر با بالاترین بار عاملی در پنج مؤلفۀ بقا، هژمونی، اقتصادی، سیاسی و حقوقی و اجتماعی فرهنگی کشف شد. برای ساخت نقشۀ مدل و اعتباربخشی آن نیز ازنظر نخبگانی ماتریس ضرایب تحلیل اثر متقاطع در نرم‌افزار میک‌مک استفاده شد . بر اساس آن، متغیرهای تأثیرگذار ورودی (شامل متغیرهای بحرانی و محیطی)، متغیرهای دووجهی (شامل متغیرهای خطر و هدف)، متغیرهای وابسته و متغیرهای مستقل (شامل متغیرهای جدا و اهرمی دومین)، متغیرهای تنظیمی و متغیرهای راهبردی به همراه نقشۀ تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری آن‌ها را شناسایی و استخراج کردیم. نتایج این پژوهش برای روش‌شناسی پژوهش‌های روابط خارجی، تحلیل و تبیین روابط کنونی کشورها و سناریونویسی و پیش‌بینی آیندۀ روابط کشورها کاربرد دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing and Validating a Model of Foreign Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Azerbaijan Republic: Extraction of Risk, Critical, Strategic and Regulatory Variables

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehrdad Jajani 1
  • Ardeshir Sanaei 2
  • Kabak Khabiri 3
1 Ph. D. Candidate in International Relations, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University
2 Assistant Professor, International Relations Department, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University
3 Assistant Professor, International Relations Department, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University
چکیده [English]

Introduction: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus became a battleground between regional powers and superpowers due to its rich energy resources, transit geopolitics, proximity to the Caspian Sea, and economic opportunities.  This strategic importance for Iran was greater than the fact that the region affects Iran's regional security and provides many economic opportunities for the country that can help lift economic sanctions. Foreign relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan are more critical between these countries. Research on the relationship between countries suffers from methodological gaps and shortcomings. Thus, this study attempts to cover these weaknesses and develop and validate a model of relationships between the countries.
Research Question: To achieve the objectives of the research, the following research questions have been developed: What are the main factors and variables of the structure of foreign relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan? What is the interaction and behavior of these variables in the system of bilateral relations and what is their nature?
Research Hypothesis: According to the research questions and objectives, the following hypotheses are proposed:

The developed model of Iran-Azerbaijan relations is a valid model that corresponds to environmental realities.
The validated model shows an acceptable fit index in SPSS.
The extracted variables can predict the future of foreign relations between the countries.

Methodology (and theoretical framework if available):
This study uses a multi-method, multi-step design that combines structural equation modeling (content analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis) in SPSS and interaction analysis in Mic Mac. In the first phase, a content analysis was carried out in which literature review, documentary research and semi-structured interviews with experts resulted in the extraction of 33 variables. Then confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and based on Eigen Value and Factor loading, 20 variables under five different factors were extracted and confirmed. In the second phase, a crossed impact analysis was done with experts in MicMac software according to which the behavior and nature of variables were identified and reported.    
The theoretical framework: The theoretical framework that guided the entire study from data collection to data analysis was the regional integrated security theory proposed and modified by Buzan and Waver (2003) Which is in stark contrast to traditional approaches in security studies and foreign relations because it has shifted attention from the global focus to the regional level. It has four main dimensions and covers the issues of border, polarity, anarchist structure, and social construction.
Results and discussion: The data showed that the valid model of foreign relations between countries has five major dimensions that include economy, survival and stability, hegemony, legal and political, and socio-cultural dimensions with twenty different variables at least. Cross-impact analysis where the identified variables are divided into impact variables (critical and environmental variables), two-dimensional variables (risk and target variables), dependent variables, and independent variables (exceptional and secondary-leverage variables).    
Conclusion: It was concluded that structural equation modeling could provide a robust and validated model of foreign relationships between Iran and Azerbaijan and explain these relations' direction and intensity in different dimensions.  It was also concluded that the constructed model shows indicators of a good fit with the geopolitical realities of the South Caucasus. These findings obtained in the interaction analysis can be used as a valid input for scenario development and forecasting of foreign relations between countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Azerbaijan
  • Exploratory Factor Analysis
  • Iran
  • model
  • Micmac
  • validation
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