علت‌های تغییر رویکرد روسیه در برابر جنگ‌های اول و دوم قره‌باغ

Introduction: The South Caucasus has always been the focus of regional and extra-regional powers and has been involved in competitions to influence and dominate the region. Russia has always paid special attention to the Caucasus. Russia's desire to influence and dominate the region is rooted in its multifaceted interests in South Caucasus. The Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis is one of the oldest conflicts in the South Caucasus region, which threatens the security of the region and despite the extensive efforts of regional and international actors, it has not been fully resolved. The current research aims to investigate the factors and causes that prompted Russia to change its approaches and policies towards the first and second Nagorno-Karabakh Wars.
Research question: The question of this research is what causes and factors made the change in Russia's approach to the first and second Karabakh war?
Research hypothesis: The hypothesis of this research is that the political changes in Armenia in 2018 and the adoption of western policies by the Pashinyan government played a major role in changing Russia's approach to the second Karabakh war.
Methodology and theoretical framework: The study was conducted using a monograph. One of the important concepts in the field of international relations is the concept of great power. The concept of "Great Power" is still widely used to analyze the behavior and foreign policy of certain countries and has not lost its relevance. "Great Power" is an identity that, for historical reasons, cannot be easily erased from the minds of the political elites of some states, even in spite of the severe loss of material resources of power. Most of the great powers of the contemporary world have not been able to achieve the position of global hegemon. But most of them claim special rights, privileges and responsibilities in certain geographical areas. The great powers reserve the right to decide on matters affecting international peace and security. A regional power is a country that has the necessary credibility and authority to influence a region. In addition to the regional position on the world scale, a regional power can also be known as a great power.
Results and discussion: After 1988, Russia tried to manage the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, it seemed that the country could not achieve its goals and this caused dissatisfaction in the Republic of Azerbaijan. Russia's support to Armenia played a key role in the Armenia's success in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. The war ended with the mediation of Russia and a ceasefire was established between the two countries. Several years later, in April 2016, a conflict broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Although this did not last long, it took a significant toll. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War started on September 27th, 2020, and continued for 44 days. The second war somehow changed the region and, despite the first war, it was characterized by the presence of more players. Azerbaijan won the second Nagorno-Karabakh war and finally the war ended with a ceasefire brokered by Russia.
Relationships between Azerbaijan and Russia are complex and multifaceted. During the presidency of Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, Russia and the Republic of Azerbaijan have experienced a pragmatic and profitable relations and have interacted with each other in various fields. Russia is one of the main trading partners of Azerbaijan and in 2020, it took the first and third place in the import and export of Azerbaijan, respectively. Russia's foreign direct investment in Azerbaijan increased from 2016 to 2020. Moreover, although Azerbaijan's foreign direct investment in Russia declined between 2016 and 2018, it increased 2019. On the other hand, Russian-Armenian military-technical cooperation between 1991 and 2021 was complex and extensive, developing simultaneously in several key areas. Russia's foreign direct investment decreased significantly in 2018 following the political developments in Armenia. Nevertheless, Russia significantly increased its foreign direct investment in Armenia in 2020.
In 2018, the election of a new government in Armenia revived efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The relations between Armenia-Russia became dark after the election of Pashinyan. From the time of its revolution until the 2020 war, the Armenian government sought to attract investment from the West. It should be considered that Russia was unhappy with the 2018 Armenian revolution as it believed the West was supporting regime change through street protests and organizing such events in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It can be concluded that the above developments prompted Russia to adopt pessimistic view of Armenia.
Conclusion: Russia considers itself as a regional power and opposes the presence and influence of other powers, especially Western powers and the United States in this region. The results of the present study showed that Russia reacts to any issue that threatens its influence in the South Caucasus region. The importance of this issue for Russia was so great that the country's relations with Armenia underwent changes after the election of Pashinyan and the adoption of Pro-Western policies by his government. Therefore, Russia significantly reduced its foreign direct investment in Armenia in 2018. Russia’s different approaches to the First and Second Nagorno-Karabakh Wars were mostly influenced by the Armenian Velvet Revolution of 2018 and the pro-western policies of Pashinyan’s goverment. In other words, it can be said that the policy adopted by Russia towards the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 was a reaction to Pashinyan’s pro-western policies in Armenia. Therefore, the main reason for the change of Russia's approach in the Second Karabakh war is that Armenia did not follow the framework of the laws intended by Russia and Russia changed its approach to punish this country in this war.