تأثیر طرح‌های آبی ترکیه در بالادست حوضۀ ارس بر اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران

Introduction: This research aims to investigate the consequences of Turkish hydro-power projects in the upstream Aras basin on Iran's agricultural economy. To do this, after trying to show that the consequences of Turkey's DAP project (Doğu Anadolu Projesi) for Iran could be much greater than the consequences of Turkey's GAP project (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi) for Syria and Iraq, we have reviewed previous research to show that there is a research gap in terms of implications of DAP's consequences for Iran's agricultural economy. Then, we have presented the conceptual framework of the research, in which "agricultural economy" "hydro-politic" and "hydro-hegemony" are of particular importance. We then present a picture of the Aras basin to highlight its importance in Iran's agricultural economy. Then, after examining Turkey's hydro-power projects in Aras, we examined two macro/mega trends and five main trends affecting this issue and finally came to a conclusion.
Research question: What are the implications of Turkish hydro-power projects in the upstream Aras basin for Iran's agricultural economy?
Research hypothesis: Turkey's hydro-power projects in the upstream Aras basin will have major consequences for Iran's agricultural economy, such as the conversion of irrigated lands to (rainy) drylands in Iran’s share of the Aras basin and wasting the investments made in the agricultural sector in the northern regions of the three northwestern provinces of Iran.
Methodology: Given that Turkey's hydro-power projects in the Aras basin have not yet been fully implemented, here we present an explanatory approach for future studies to solve the problem.
Results and discussion: In examining the implications of hydro-power projects that Turkey has implemented or is seeking to implement in the upstream Aras basin, we argued that the two macro trends that determine Turkey's hydro-politics are global "climate change" and the "competitions between the regional powers" of the Middle East. The first macro trend is causing Turkey's climate to dry out. As a result, the country has sought to manage its consequences by building dams and controlling the water of cross-border rivers. The second macro trend, the competition between regional powers in the Middle East, has led Turkey to use water to gain political and economic benefits from other countries in the region and enhance its position in the region. For this reason, Turkey sometimes talks about exchanging water for oil with Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries and exporting water to other countries through the construction of pipelines. In addition, Turkey has tried to use the Tigris, Euphrates and Aras waters for the "development" of its southeastern and eastern provinces. These regions are less or under-developed compared to other parts of the country, especially the western part. In this framework, dam construction is a means of managing Turkey’s social, political, and ethnic problems in the target regions, which have manifested themselves in the form of Kurdish separatism.
Considering the large and small dams that Turkey has built in the Aras basin so far, it can be said that the country will implement more hydro-power projects in the Aras basin, similar to what has been implemented in the Tigris and Euphrates basins. In recent years, the amount of water entering Iran from the Aras has decreased significantly and it can be predicted that the water in this river will decrease even more significantly in the future.
Therefore, given the macro/mega and major trends we have discussed in this article and what we know about Turkey's hydro-political approach and hydro-hegemony strategy, it can be said that Turkey is determined to control as much of the Aras water as possible which will have numerous consequences for the countries downstream of this border-crossing river, including Iran. These consequences can manifest themselves in various forms and harm the "human security" of the people in the region. One of the components of human security is "economic security" in which agriculture plays an important role. Therefore, Turkey's dam construction in the upstream Aras basin river will have negative consequences for the agricultural economies of the countries downstream of this river.
Conclusion: Our studies in this research show that the consequences of Turkey's dam construction on Iran's agricultural economy will be different: on the one hand, with the reduction of Aras water, Iran's ability to produce agricultural products will decrease especially in the three provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan and Ardabil - parts of which are in the Aras basin. In addition, the reduction of Aras water will definitely harm its quality, especially since a lot of urban and industrial wastewater enters the river. Therefore, agricultural products produced with the reduced water of the river will be of lower quality and may even cause health problems. This will also reduce the competitiveness of Iran's agricultural products in the market. Similarly, reducing the Aras water will waste the investments that Iran has made in its share of the Aras basin in areas such as the Mughan Plain. In addition, the construction of Turkish dams in the upstream Aras basin and the inevitable reduction in the water reaching downstream countries such as Iran will also have environmental consequences, which endangers some other components of human security for the people of the region.