موازنۀ تهدید و روابط نظامی روسیه و چین

Introduction: Russia and China have had extensive relations in various fields over the last two decades. One of the main areas of the relations between the two countries is the military and arms interactions, which have increased especially in the last decade. In 2014, China was the first country to receive the modern Russian S-400 system and in 2015, several Russian Sukhoi-35 aircraft were delivered to China. The holding of bilateral and multilateral exercises between Russia and China in recent years is also very important. At the same time, the two countries have a history of escalating tensions to the point of military conflict in the 1960s. Also, the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China currently share a border of more than 4200 kilometers. Therefore, Russia's proximity to a rising global power and the problems it faces in the regions adjacent to its powerful Far Eastern neighbor suggest that geopolitical logic should compel Russia to have cautious relations with its eastern neighbor and avoid extensive military cooperation with China. Despite this important issue, cooperation between Moscow and Beijing in the field of military defense is increasing.

Research question: What factors have led Russia from strategic caution in military-defense relations with China to expanding cooperation in this area?

Research hypothesis: The US threat to pressure, blocade and sanction Russia since 2014 has led to the expansion of its defense cooperation with China, but nevertheless, this cooperation does not necessarily mean a strategic alliance, but rather represents a kind of balancing of threats through military means.

Methodology and theorethical framework: To examine this hypothesis, we will use the qualitative and content analysis method of texts and data available in various reports and sources (articles, books and reliable internet sources). The theory that guides our hypothesis analysis in this research is the theory of defensive realism.

Results and discussion: In this article, after presenting the theory of defensive realism and the analytical model derived from it, the geopolitical concerns of Russia and China and the role of directing the US operational threat to the interests of the two states in the Ukraine crisis and the Taiwan issue are discussed. Finally, the development process of military cooperation between the two countries was examined in two periods of time, before and after the Ukraine crisis. But a summary of this article can be stated as follows:
Russia's changing approach to military-defense cooperation with China: The trend in military relations and defense-military cooperation between the two countries over the past decade, which relates to the level of strategic relations, indicates a significant shift in Moscow's cautious approach to Beijing in arms sales. We witnessed the joint production of weapons and military technologies between the two countries and even the development of a joint roadmap by the military leaders of the two countries in the mid-2000s.
This is despite the fact that in the aftermath of the Ukrainian war in February 2022, China, while intensifying political relations with Russia in the military sphere, has not taken any clear steps to accompany Moscow, such as sending weapons or troops. American threat: The development of defense-military relations between Russia and China has occured in a situation where the two countries face an objective threat from the United States. This has been highlighted for Russia since the Ukraine crisis in 2014 and for China, especially after the start of the US trade war in 2018 and the Washington's continued confrontational approach with Beijing in escalating the Taiwan crisis in tandem with the Ukraine war.
Non-alliance: Although the two countries face a common threat from the United States and have increased their military defense cooperation in such circumstances, they do not follow the strategy of alliance against the West in general and the United States and NATO in particular. In fact, China and Russia have different goals in this relationship. In a situation where Russia is effectively facing the West after the Ukraine war, China is trying to maintain a multifaceted and dynamic balance in its foreign policy and is pursuing a cautious approach to the international balance of power.

Conclusion: In general, this article discussed and analyzed that, despite some geopolitical, demographic and economic concerns arising from China's economic rise, Russia has put increasing cooperation with China in the military-defense field on the agenda in the current situation and under the pressure of Western sanctions, especially the objective threat from the United States and NATO, in order to maintain and even enhance its military-defense power. Meanwhile, due to the intensification of America's confrontational policies, both in the economic sphere (trade war) and in the political sphere (Taiwan crisis), China has the necessary motivation to cooperate with Russia in this field. The shared sense of threat from the United States to both Russia and China, especially in the years following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, led to a situation where Russia's sense of threat and at least caution towards developing military-technical cooperation with China seemed to be fading. This led to the acceleration and intensification of strategic military, technical and operational cooperation between the two countries in the last decade. However, each actor has different goals and this cooperation does not lead to a strategic alliance against the West.