جایگاه تحریم‌های اتحادیۀ اروپا و ایالات ‌متحد علیه روسیه در بحران اوکراین

Introduction: The aim of this study is to examine the network of factors affecting the Ukrainian crisis and determine the place of sanctions against Russia in this network. In response to tensions and conflicts resulting from Russian policies and actions, Western countries have considered the use of economic sanctions as a key tool to confront this country, especially to limit its military and economic capabilities. These sanctions include restrictions on trade, investment, access to international financial markets and advanced technologies, especially those that directly contribute to increasing military capabilities. This targeted strategy is designed to put pressure on Russia, limit its military and economic development capabilities, prevent progress in its military programs and encourage Russia to reconsider its foreign and military policies.
 
Research question: What factors have contributed to the escalation and continuation of this international crisis and what position do the EU and US sanctions against Russia have in the network of variables affecting the course of the Ukrainian crisis?
 
Research hypothesis: The imposition of sanctions, as a (bi-faceted) risk variable, has perpetuated the crisis by strengthening Russia's new economic and political partners within the network of factors affecting the Ukrainian crisis.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This paper adopts a mixed approach and uses the interaction analysis technique to examine the research objectives. In this regard, two types of effects, direct and indirect, are distinguished from each other. Since any changes in key variables affect the entire system, variables are separated from each other based on priority of their impact and are given attention accordingly. This is facilitated using the MICMAC (Multiplication Matrix Interaction Applied to Classification) software for interaction Analysis. The article follows its theoretical approach, namely Michael Brecher's crisis management model. Then, using a questionnaire distributed to specialists in international relations and Russian studies, it identifies variables at the micro and macro levels in the comprehensive crisis model to highlight the most important ones.
 
Results and discussion: In this paper, the opinions of the 30 experts in the field of the Ukraine and Russia crisis were examined as a statistical society population and using MICMAC software as input, the main variables that play a major role in the developement of the system in the future were identified. Based on the software output, the variables can be analyzed as follows:
- The determinant, contextual, and influential variables (in the upper left quadrant, in Figure 4,) are variables that have the highest level of influence on their variables and the lowest level of being influenced by them. The driving variable that exacerbates the crisis is the United States' action in freezing Russia's foreign reserves in response to the annexation of Crimea, which is recognized as the driving force behind the escalation of international crisis.
- Variables identified as independent or leverage variables (in the lower left quadrant), are those with the least influence. Naturally, these variables have no analytical value and are considered unimportant in the system.
- Variables with high sensitivity and low influence are in the lower right quadrant. These variables, known as the system's dependent variables, are of great importance because they undergo the greatest changes due to system changes. These variables do not themselves initiate changes in the system.
- Variables in the upper right quadrant significantly affect the stability of the system. These variables have high sensitivity to both other variables and systemic changes and are important sources of system change. These variables are labeled as risk, binary or target variables. Risk variables related to long-running Ukrainian war and ongoing sanctions are key elements in the analysis of crisis. They not only affect the continuation of the crisis but also have the potential to exacerbate it. A protracted war leads to economic and human erosion on both sides, potentially inflicting significant damage that could take years to repair. Sanctions can lead to the creation of parallel financial systems and the search for new trading partners, ultimately increasing isolation or confrontation between global power blocs.
- The most important system variables identified in the interaction analysis are those located in the square area at the center of the intersecting lines separating the quadrants and are known as regulatory variables. These variables have a balanced level of influence and impact and have high potential to manipulate parameters and manage the path of system changes. Since the crisis is ongoing and neither side is willing to reduce tensions, no regulatory variables have been identified in this section. These variables become more important during the crisis mitigation phase.
 
Conclusion: The findings of the analysis show that no positive results or achievements have been achieved towards resolving the crisis and the crisis continues. The aim of Western sanctions against Russia after the Ukraine war was to put pressure on the Russian economy and reduce its ability to continue the war. In other words, sanctions are usually designed to create economic pressure to force the target country to change its behavior; however, their success depends on the target country’s economic dependence on the international community and its ability to find alternative means. In the case of Russia, sanctions have had an economic impact but have so far failed to produce a significant change in the country’s policies. Russia has also responded to this challenge by imposing reciprocal sanctions and trying to reduce its dependence on Western markets, seeking new markets and partners in Asia, especially China, to reduce its vulnerability to Western sanctions. As a result, the war is still ongoing, showing that sanctions alone have not been able to quickly stop the conflict. Russia, with its own strategic and security objectives in Ukraine-such as preventing NATO expansion toward its borders and establishing a sphere of influence-seems to view the economic costs of sanctions as less important than achieving these goals.