تأثیر همه‌پرسی سال 2022 بازنگری قانون‌ اساسی بر ساختار سیاسی جمهوری قزاقستان

Introduction: A national referendum on constitutional amendment was held in Kazakhstan on June 5, 2022, with the adoption of 33 proposed constitutional amendments to garner public support for a “New Kazakhstan”. As a result, the Constitutional Court re-established, a seven-year presidential term was approved, the death penalty was abolished and the close relatives of the president were banned from entering politics or holding senior positions in state-owned companies or regional administrations. In addition, the 2000 law that granted legal immunity to Nazarbayev and his family was also repealed. In this article, the authors attempt to examine the Impact of the 2022 Constitutional Referendum on the Political Structure of Kazakhstan. The understanding of the success and effectiveness of some reforms that pursue higher goals such as achieving democracy and reducing the concentration of power is demonstrated in the medium and long-term based on the performance of political elite.
The Constitution of Kazakhstan was adopted by referendum on August 30, 1995 with 90.01 % of the vote.  At the meeting of the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan on April 26, 2022, President Tokayev submitted a request to hold a national referendum to revise the Constitution and the referendum was held on June 5, 2022. In fact, as a result of 2022 referendum, 77.18 % of citizens said yes to 56 constitutional amendments in 33 articles of the Constitution; this has changed one-third of the current Constitution.
The political structure, reformed  through the referendum, can be examined in three key aspects: Constitutional, Public, and Social Reforms including changes to the ownership of the lands and its subsoil, waters, flora and fauna and other natural resources from the government to the people and re-establishing the Constitutional Court; Presidential System includes changing presidential term to 7 years, banning close relatives of the President of Kazakhstan from holding positions as political civil servants or heading institutions in the quasi-governmental sector, and  removing the President's authority to dismiss Akims (governor) of districts, cities, and rural districts from their positions; and  the Parliament including holding Mazhilis (parliament) elections based on a mixed electoral system, the laws will be passed through the Parliment and the Senate will not approve or disapprove them, reducing the presidential share in appointing deputies in the Senate from 15 to 10 representatives and the appointment of 5 members of the Senate by the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan.
In fact, the main goal of the amendment was to reduce the concentration of power and the authority of the president while increasing the power and the role of the parliament, local representative bodies and the people in Kazakhstan. The only reform to the judicial system is the re-establishment of the Constitutional Court; however, the president still has great influence over the structure of the Constitutional Court as he/she can choose the president of the court and four judges.
The aim of this article is to assess the impact of the 2022 Constitutional Referendum on the political structure of Kazakhstan. The main question of this research is how the 2022 constitutional amendment could affect the political structure of Kazakhstan? For this purpose, we collected data from news, articles, reports and analyses in this field. In addition, we have analyzed the latest version of the constitution of Kazakhstan with previous version.
Research question: How could the 2022 constitutional amendment affect Kazakhstan's political structure?
Research hypothesis: It seems that at the very first moment one can observe the short-term effects of some reforms on the political structure of Kazakhstan. However, the understanding of the success and effectiveness of some reforms that pursue higher goals such as achieving democracy and reducing the concentration of power is demonstrated in the medium and long term based on the performance of political elite.
Methodology: The exploratory method was used in specific content analysis. Data was collected through library sources, official statements, reports, as well as a review of the Constitution of Kazakhstan and the amendment made on June 5, 2022.
Results and discussion: Kazakh society expressed its desire for fundemental changes in the country's political structure through a referendum held on June 5, 2022. However, it must be acknowledged that reforms alone, such as reforming the presidential term, adjusting the number of representatives in parliament, changing the name of the capital, and re-electing the president, senate, and parliament, cannot guarantee democracy in Kazakhstan. Given the experience of Kazakhstan's first president in maintaining power, there have been concerns and doubts about the effectiveness of Tokayev's reforms. It is still unclear whether Tokayev will implement the approved reforms or prioritize his political survival over them.
Over the years, the Constitution of Kazakhstan has undergone numerous revisions and amendments, yet these amendments have not brought about significant changes in the country's political structure or affected the functioning of its political elite. While recent reforms have sparked a glimmer of hope, the actions and intentions of Kazakhstan's political elite still need to be seen moving forward.
Conclusion: It is not possible to quickly evaluate and validate all the constitutional amendments of June 5, 2022 through national referendum. These revisions should be monitored and evaluated in three seperate periods: short-term, medium-term, and long-term. Democracy is an ongoing process that requires constant vigilance and commitment. Kazakhstan can achieve its stated goals only if comprehensive reforms continue. The success of these reforms now depends on Kazakhstan’s political elite and future presidents and their response to these changes. To institutionalize a democratic system and change the country’s political structure, Kazakhstan needs the support of its political elite.