مانع‌های شکل‌گیری‌ ائتلاف‌ راهبردی جمهوری اسلامی ایران و روسیه؛ مطالعۀ موردی ائتلاف ایران و روسیه در بحران سوریه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکدۀ روابط بین‌الملل وزارت امورخارجه

2 استادیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکدۀ روابط بین‌الملل وزارت امور خارجه

چکیده

در وضعیت آنارشیک نظام بین‌الملل کشور‌ها برای تأمین امنیت و تضمین بقا باید به خود متکی باشند و برای تأمین منافع خویش گام بردارند. در چنین شرایطی رویکرد ائتلاف‌سازی روشی مطلوب برای ایجاد موازنه، خنثی‌کردن تهدیدها و تأمین امنیت به حساب می‌آید. فشار ساختاری نظام‌ بین‌الملل بعد از فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی، به‌ویژه در سال‌های اخیر ایجاد ائتلاف برای مقابله با تهدیدها را اجتناب‌ناپذیر کرده است و جمهوری اسلامی ایران با توجه به موقعیت ژئوپلیتیک ویژۀ خود باید برای شکل‌دادن به چنین ائتلاف‌هایی گام‌های مؤثری بردارد. پرسش و مسئلۀ اصلی امکان‌داشتن و امکان‌نداشتن به‌کارگرفتن چنین رویکردی یا چگونگی آن است. اگرچه ایران در تقابل با نظم حاکم در دوره‌هایی مانند بحران سوریه به‌سوی رویکرد ائتلاف‌سازی حرکت کرده است، این پرسش مطرح است که آیا ائتلاف ایران و روسیه در بحران سوریه می‌تواند منجر به ائتلافی دیگر در سطح منطقه و حوزه‌های دیگر شود یا خیر؟ بررسی هدف‌های سیاست خارجی دو کشور در شرایط کنونی نشان می‌دهد که برای دستیابی به چنین هدفی به سطح بالاتری از تجمیع منافع و همگرایی دو کشور نیاز است. تهدیدهای خارجی مشترک علیه منافع منطقه‌ای تهران و مسکو یک‌بار منجر به شکل‌گیری ائتلافی در بحران سوریه شده است، اما برای اینکه این ائتلاف به شکل راهبردی در حوزه‌های دیگر هم تسری یابد، دو کشور باید منافع مشترک بیشتری با یکدیگر داشته باشند. بنابراین با شرایط کنونی چنین امری میسر نیست و برای تعمیق همکاری‌ها باید تغییرهایی ایجاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Barriers to the Formation of the Strategic Alliance between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia: Case Study, Iran-Russia Alliance in the Syrian Crisis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parham Ghani 1
  • Abbasgholi Asgarian 2
1 M.A. in International Relations, SIR of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Iran
2 Assistant Professor of International Relations, SIR of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Iran
چکیده [English]

In the anarchic situation of the international system, where countries still have to rely on themselves for security and survival, the alliance approach is a desirable way to balance and neutralize threats. The Islamic Republic of Iran, due to its particular geopolitical position in Western Asia and confrontation with the ruling order after the end of the imposed war, has shifted towards a coalition-building approach. In addition, the structural pressure of the international system after the collapse of the Soviet Union, especially in recent years, has inevitably created a coalition to counter these threats. The Islamic Republic of Iran has in recent years been able to form its most successful coalition with Russia and Turkey in the Syrian crisis. However, the main question now is whether the Russian-Iranian coalition in the Syrian crisis can necessarily lead to a strategic alliance between these two countries at the regional and other levels. Examining the foreign policy goals of the two countries in the current situation shows that there is a need for a higher level of integration between the two countries to achieve such a goal.
With the end of the bipolar system and the collapse of the communist states headed by the former Soviet Union, international relations entered a new era that differed in all aspects in form and content from the previous systems. Under these circumstances, relations among countries are very different and debatable in terms of complexity and multiplicity. Now, almost three decades after the collapse of the bipolar system, although a wide range of models was designed to explain the status of the international system such as unipolar, multipolar, multipolar and hegemony, etc. these models can be boldly proposed. Experts believe that we have no definite order in the post-Cold War international relations. For this reason, many theorists of the current international system emphasize that we are in the period of transition into the multipolar order. Thus, international relations after the Cold War has been complex and ambiguous, at least in terms of structure and form, and have not yet defined precise and efficient substantive rules. What is certain, however, is that international politics is still anarchic and that governments operate in a self-sufficient environment. Under these circumstances, and due to changes in the geometry of power, including the decline of the United States and the growing power of countries such as China and Russia, coalitions in the coming world will be very important. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as a regional power in West Asia, which faces many security challenges, should take advantage of this approach. Despite the importance of this approach, the question that every concerned international relations researcher must answer is whether the Iran-Russia alliance in the Syrian crisis can be repeated at other levels.
The principles of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran can lead to alliances with other major powers that challenge the United States, but at the same time have different aspects that sometimes make these countries align their interests with Iran card to play against the United States.
Therefore; it is believed that cooperation of countries such as Russia and China with the Islamic Republic of Iran is limited to a certain range and these countries sometimes use Iran as a card in their relations with the West especially the United States. Russia, as a world power, has diplomatic relations with the United States and is currently in competition rather than hostility with it. So, naturally, Moskow should have more room to maneuver, but the Islamic Republic of Iran has many conflicts at all levels with the United States.
In addition; regarding Iran’s opposition against Israel, it should be said that there is no similarity between the positions of the Islamic Republic and any country in the world. Perhaps the main reason for the Islamic Republic of Iran’s reliance on militant groups such as Hezbollah and the popular uprising is that we have not been able to form a strategic alliance to secure our interest due to the low level of common interests with some countries such as Russia. Therefore, defensive realism is being penetrated to the region through cooperation with such groups. Iran’s strategic alliance is not with countries but with non-governmental organizations.
So, in general, according to the definitions of coalition and alliance, the cooperation between Iran and Russia is a coalition, not an alliance, which, by its very nature, ends with the achievement of the two countries’ initial goals, such as stabilization in Syria. A strategic alliance can be reached with this country because the level of common interests of the two countries is not so high yet. Some Russian experts have called Tehran-Moscow relations fragile and believe that Iran cannot be a reliable partner for Russia. At the same time, there are many opponents in Iran about closer proximity to Russia and mistakenly consider this proximity to be contrary to the principle of neither East nor West policy. 
Thus, it is safe to say that we have not been able to reach a consensus on our national interests and priorities during the past four decades due to a variety of reasons, and until we resolve this internal problem, the prospect of forming a strategic coalition at the regional level, even with Russia does not seem very clear. The Syrian crisis and common threats felt both by Iran and Russia have shown that the principle of alliance building is not an unattainable goal and can be achieved if the convergence of interests is felt with a country like Russia.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Alliance
  • Balance of power
  • Coalition
  • International Anarchy
  • Self-help
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