تحلیل منافع روسیه در منطقۀ قفقاز (مطالعۀ موردی: بحران قره‌باغ)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

روسیه در پی بازیافتن جایگاه از دست‌رفتۀ خود در نظام بین‌الملل است. از دید کرملین ظهور روسیه در نظام بین‌الملل، شکل‌گیری یکی از قطب‌های این نظام حول محور روسیه و ایجاد موازنۀ راهبردی در برابر غرب نیازمند گسترش نفوذ روسیه در حوزۀ خارج نزدیک و سرانجام ایجاد ساختارها و ترتیبات منطقه‌ای با رهبری این کشور است. بنابراین روسیه حضور نهادهای غربی در جمهوری‌های جداشده از اتحاد  شوروی را تهدیدی برای امنیت و منافع ملی خود تصور می‌کند. نوشتار حاضر با هدف بررسی روش‌های سیاست خارجی روسیه در منطقۀ قفقاز و در رابطه با بحران قره‌باغ نوشته شده است. در اینجا این پرسش مطرح است که رویکرد سیاست خارجی روسیه در برابر بحران قره‌باغ چیست و دلیل‌های به‌کارگرفتن چنین رویکردی کدامند؟ در پاسخ به آن، این فرضیه مطرح شده است که روسیه بنا به‌دلایل سیاسی، نظامی و اقتصادی در پی تداوم وضع موجود در بحران قره‌باغ است. بر اساس یافته‌های نوشتار، طرف‌های درگیر در مناقشۀ قره‌باغ بر این موضوع واقفند که رضایت مسکو شرط لازم برای رسیدن به هرگونه توافق سیاسی مطلوب است. در نتیجه برای جلب رضایت کرملین مجبور هستند تا سیاست‌های کلان خود را با منافع کرملین در منطقه هماهنگ کنند یا اینکه دست‌کم رویکرد سیاست خارجی‌شان با منافع و هدف‌های روسیه در اوراسیا در تضاد نباشد. در این نوشتار تلاش شده است به روش توصیفی ـ تحلیلی و با استفاده از چارچوب نظری ژئوپلیتیک، رویکرد سیاست خارجی روسیه در رابطه با بحران قره‌باغ بررسی شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Russian Interests in the Caucasus Region (Case Study: Karabakh Crisis)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahrooz Ebrahimi 1
  • Mostafa Kheiri 2
1 Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Isfahan
2 PhD Student of International Relations, University of Isfahan
چکیده [English]

Moscow's long-standing absence from international arena has led the United States to dominate many parts of Eastern Europe with the NATO tool and close itself to the Russian borders. With the further expansion of NATO and the European Union towards the borders of the Russian Federation, the conflict between Russia and the Western powers including US government has intensified. Meanwhile, the rise of Putin and his efforts to revive the country's position in international arena have increased the conflict between the West and Russia. Putin seeks to recover its lost position in the international system. From Kremlin’s point of view, the emergence of Russia in the international system, formation of one of the poles of the international system around Russia and creating a strategic balance against the West require Russian influence in the near abroad and the creation of regional structures and arrangements under Russian leadership. Russia sees the presence of Western institutions in the republics separated from the former Soviet Union as a threat to its national security and interests. Kremlin considers near abroad as its backyard and exclusive sphere of influence. On the other hand, the Kremlin's threatening perceptions of the periphery Environment of the country have been influenced by the logic of the Russian historical insecurity. According to this logic, Russia is a vulnerable country and foreign threats or internal riots supported by hostile and foreign powers can threaten its political or territorial integrity. As a result, the Russians call their activities in the Eurasian region, and especially in near abroad as a defensive action. Therefore maintaining the regime and the territorial integrity of the country, exercising influence over the near abroad, emphasizing Russia's strategic position as a major power in the structure of the international system, adopting economic and political cooperation with major powers of the world as an equal partner and ultimately preventing interference from foreign actors in the internal affairs of Russia can be considered key principles that guide the foreign policy of the Kremlin after the end of the Cold War.
This paper aims to examine the policies of Russian foreign policy in the Caucasus and in relation to the crisis of Nagorno-Karabagh. The main research questions can be formulated as follow: What is Russia’s foreign policy approach toward the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict and what are the reasons for adopting such approach? In response, it has been hypothesized that Russia for political, military and economic reasons, wants the status quo to continue. Based on the findings of the research, the unresolved territorial conflicts in the Eurasian region, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, are key tools in securing Russia's strategic interests in Eurasia. Russia believes in regional security, coalition between the countries of the region and the creation of collective security is better than NATO. The Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Union are Kremlin-led regional arrangements to keep foreign actors out of the region and are, in fact, a fundamental plan for reintegrating republics detached from the Soviet Union. The crisis in the Nagorno-Karabakh has strengthened the Russians in the South Caucasus region and removed the economic and military infrastructure of the West from the region. The parties involved in the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict know that Moscow's satisfaction is a prerequisite for any favorable political agreement. Therefore, they have to coordinate their macro policies with the interests of the Kremlin in the region, or at least their foreign policy approach should not be in conflict with the interests and goals of Russia in Eurasia. The fear of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia from the Russian game with the card of the political situation in Nagorno-Karabagh has caused the two countries to expand their cooperation with Russia and do not welcome Western institutions in the region. The Republic of Azerbaijan has also extended its economic, political and military cooperation with the Russian Federation. This country is today the most respected Russian economic partner in the South Caucasus region. On the other hand, cooperation between the two countries has been dramatically developed in military sector, so that Russia is the largest supplier of military equipment to the Republic of Azerbaijan. The Republic of Azerbaijan has repeatedly emphasized its unwillingness to join NATO.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia have been relatively stable. Nevertheless, the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict seems to be the source of political influence and the military presence of Russia in Armenia. Armenia is the only country in the Caucasus, which hosts Russian troops and bases in the region. Not only is this country an active member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, but also the only member of the treaty in the South Caucasus. Russia has a serious military presence in Armenia and it is undoubtedly the dominant power in Armenia's politics. The economic and political influence of Russia in the Republic of Armenia has increased dramatically with its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and the withdrawal of the signing of the EU- Armenia cooperation agreement. The continuation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be regarded as the root of Russian influence in this country. Russia's influence in Armenia is such that it should be regarded as a first-class concern of ensuring political independence and national sovereignty. The control of Armenia's national borders with Iran and Turkey by Russian forces and controlling Armenia's major economic infrastructure reflects the undermining of Armenia's sovereignty and political independence. In this article, the authors attempt to analyze Russian foreign policy in relation to the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict using a geopolitical framework.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Armenia
  • Caucasus
  • Nagorno–Karabagh Crisis
  • Russia
  • The Republic of Azerbaijan
A) English
1. Abrahamyan, Eduard (2016), “Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Ineffectiveness of the Minsk Group”, Apr. 27, Available at: https://www. cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13355-fighting-in-nagorno-karabakh-and-the-ineffectiveness-of-the-minsk-group.html, (Accessed on: 12/9/2016).
2. Babayan, Nelli and Thomas Risse (2015), “The Return of the Empire? Russia’s Counteraction to Transantlantic Democracy Promotion in its Near Abroad”, Democratization, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 438-458.
3. Balakishi, Samir (2016), “Eurasian Economic Union: Russia’s New Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus”, Available at: https://www.msm.nl/resources/ uploads/2016/09/MSM-WP2016-1.pdf, (Accessed on: 12/9/2016).
4. Blank, Stephen (2014), “From Eurasia with Love”, The Journal of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 162-174.
5. Bock, Andreas M. and Ingo Henneberg (2013), “Why Balancing Fails?”, Working Papers on International Politics and Foreign Policy, No. 1, pp. 1-19, Available at: http://www.jaeger.unikoeln.de/fileadmin/templates/publikationen/AIPA2_2013. pdf (Accessed on: 13/10/2015).
6. Boonstra, Jos (2015), “The South Caucasus and its Wider Neighbourhood”, FRIDE (a European Think Tank for Global Action), Available at: http://www.cascade-caucasus.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Cascade-D8-Caucasus-Wider-Neighbourhood.pdf, (Accessed on: 22/5/2016).
7. Burak Gonca, Isa (2016), “Nagorno Karabakh: Armenia’s Claims, Azerbaijan’s Position, and the Peace Efforts”, E-International Relations, Available at: https://www.e-ir.info/2016/06/04/nagorno-karabakh-armenias-claims-azerbaijans-position-and-the-peace-efforts/, (Accessed on: 12/9/2016).
8. Cornell, Svante E. (2016), “The Fallacy of Compartmenttalisation: the West and Russia from Ukraine to Syria”, European View, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 97-109.
9. Cornell, Svante E., S. Frederick Starr and MamukaTsereteli (2015), “A Western Strategy for the South Caucasus”, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, Available at: https://www.silkroadstudies.org/ resources/pdf/publications/1502Strategy.pdf, (Accessed on: 22/5/2016).
10. Crisis Group (2016), “The Eurasian Economic Union: Power, Politics and Trade”, Europe and Central Asia Report, No. 240, Jul. 20, Available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/central-asia/ eurasian-economic-union-power-politics-and-trade, (Accessed on: 12/9/2016).
11. De Maio, Giovanna (2016), “Russia’s View of Ukraine after the Crisis”, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 1-21.
12. Dibb, Paul (2016), Why Russia is a Threat to the International Order, Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
13. Freedom House (2016), “Freedom in the World 2016”, Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-world, (Accessed on: 12/9/2016).
14. Hedenskog, Jakob and Kaan Korkmaz (2016), “The Interests of Russia and Turkey in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict”, RUFS Briefing, No. 35, Available at: https://www.foi.se/download/18.1b4084ea15549d027d14b79/1466509555 042/RUFS+Briefing+No. +35+.pdf, (Accessed on: 12/10/2016).
15. Henderson, J. and T. Mitrova (2015), “The Political and Commercial Dynamics of Russia’s Gas Export Strategy”, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Available at: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/ wpcontent/uploads/2015/ 09/NG-102.pdf, (Accessed on: 12/6/2015).
16. Idan, Avinoam (2014), “Resurgence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict - a Russian Move on the Ukraine Chessboard”, Available at: https://www. cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13037-resurgence-of-the-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-a-russian-move-on-the-ukraine-chessboard.html, (Accessed on: 12/6/2015).
17. Jarosiewicz, Aleksander (2016), “In the Clutches of the Kremlin Azerbaijan’s Security Policy”, Centre for Eastern Studies, Available at: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2016-09-14/clutches-kremlin-azerbaijans-security-policy, (Accessed on: 1/9/2016).
18. Kalb, Marvin (2015), Imperial Gamble: Putin, Ukraine, and the New Cold War, the Brookings Institution.
19. Kasapoglu, Can (2016), “Is Armenia the Next Turkish-Russian Flashpoint?”, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/is-armenia-the-next-turkish-russian-flashpoint, (Accessed on: 1/9/2016).
20. Kubayeva, Gulaikhan (2015), “Economic Impact of the Eurasian Economic Union on Central Asia”, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Available at: http://osce-academy.net/upload/ file/ Policy_Brief_20.pdf, (Accessed on: 3/2/2016).
21. Kuchins, Andrew, Jeffry Mankoff and Oliver Backes (2016), “Azerbaijan in a Reconnecting Eurasia”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Available at: https://www.csis.org/ analysis/azerbaijan-reconnecting-eurasia, (Accessed on: 3/10/2016).
22. Lavrov, Sergey (2013), “Speech and Answers to Questions of Mass Media during Joint Press Conference Summarizing the Results of Negotiations with Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elma Mammadyarov”, May 21, Available at: http://www.mid.ru/ru/maps/az/-/asset_publisher/0TeVwfjLGJmg/content/id/ 109246?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_0TeVwfjLGJmg&_101_INSTANCE_0TeVwfjLGJmg_languageId=en_GB, (Accessed on: 12/9/2014).
23. Mammadov, Farhad (2016), “The Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh Conflictas the Key Threat to Peace and Cooperation in the South Caucasus”, Caucasus International, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 157-171.
24. McCabe, Thomas (2017), “The Russian Perception of the NATO Aerospace Threat: Could it Lead to Preemption?”, Air and Space Power Journal, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 64-77.
25. Menkiszak, Marek (2016), “Russia’s Long War on Ukraine”, Transatlantic Academy Paper Series, Available at: http://www.transatlanticacademy.org/sites /default/files/publications/Menkiszak_RussiasLongWar_Feb16_web.pdf, (Accessed on: 3/11/2016).
26. Oliker, Olga (2016), “Unpacking Russia’s New National Security Strategy”, Center for International and Strategic Studies, Jan. 7, Available at: https://www.csisorg/analysis/unpacking-russias-new-national-security -strategy, (Accessed on: 3/2/2016).
27. Romashov, Vadim and Helena Rytovuori-Apunen (2017), “Russia’s Karabakh Policy: New Momentum in Regional Perspective”, Caucasus Survey, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 160-176.
28. Schumacher, Tobias (2016), “Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Why the ‘Black Garden’ will not Blossom any Time Soon”, Royal Institute for International Relations, No. 71, Available at: http://www.egmontinstitute.be/content/uploads/ 2016/04/PB71.pdf?type=pdf, (Accessed on: 11/10/2016).
29. Sonnleitner, Dominik (2016), “Russia’s Backyard – Unresolved Conflicts in the Caucasus”, Politics in Central Europe, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 83-94.
30. Statistical Yearbook of Armenia 2015 (2015), “External Economic Activity”, Apr. 26, Available at: http://www.armstat.am/ file/doc/99493858.pdf, (Accessed on: 11/4/2016).
31. Strimbovschi, Sabina (2016), “Azerbaijan’s Balanced Foreign Policy Trapped in a Volatile Geopolitical Context”, Euro Polity, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 121-134.
32. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (2016), “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (Approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on 30 November 2016)”, Available at: http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/ CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248, (Accessed on: 21/6/2017).
33. Trenin, Dmitri (2014), “The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great-Power Rivalry”, Carnegie Moscow Center, Available at: http://carnegieendowment.org/files/ukraine_great_power_rivalry2014.pdf, (Accessed on: 21/6/2017).
34. Walt, Stephen (1987), The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
B) Persian
1. Daneshnia, Farhad and Mehri Marabi (2016), “The Constructivist Confrontation of Russia and USA in Ukraine”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 175-432.
2. Deheshiar, Hosein (2015), “Internal Faults, Historical Tensions, Geopolitical Logic of Power and Confrontation for the Crimean Peninsula”, Strategic Research of Politics, Vol. 3, No. 9, pp. 179-201.
3. Dehghani Firouzabadi, Seyyed Jalal and Manochehr Moradi (2016), “Western Threats, Russia’s Perception and the Ukraine Crisis”, International Relations, Vol. 2, No. 8, pp. 25-55.
4. Karamzadi, Moslem and Fahimeh Khansari-fard, (2015), “The Study of Ukraine-Russia Relations: Roots of the 2014 Crisis”, Central Asia and the Caucasus Studies, Vol. 20, No. 86, pp. 135-159.
5. Koolaee, Elaheh and Azadeh Allahmoradi (2012), “Russia’s Energy Policy in Central Asia”, Strategy, Vol. 61, No. 20, pp. 31-56.
6. Mirfakhraee, Seyed Hasan (2016), “Geo-Economic Occasions for Iran after Eurasian Economic Union Formation”, Studies of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 32, pp. 143-175.
7. Vosooghi, Saeed and Mostafa Kheiri (2016), “Ukraine: the Arena of Confrontation between the West and Russia”, Central Asia and the Caucasus Studies, Vol. 22, No. 94, pp. 133-158.