Introduction: The Persian Gulf, historically known as the "Sea of Persia," is a prominent body of water in southwest Asia, north of the Arabian Peninsula and south of the Iranian plateau. In 2014, following Russia's annexation of Crimea, the international community imposed extensive sanctions against the country, a situation that intensified significantly in 2022 with the advent of the full-scale Russo-Ukrainian War. These developments put economic pressure on Russia and increased its international isolation, including its expulsion from the Group of Seven (G7), which represents the world's largest developed economies. The annexation of Crimea exposed Russia to widespread and ongoing economic sanctions from Western countries and even led to its expulsion from the G7.
At the same time, Russia's economy depreciated substantially as oil prices fell. After becoming embroiled in the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia's leadership sought ways to counter its political isolation from the West. President Putin’s “pivot to the East” strategy has aimed to create new economic partnerships. As a result, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have become strategically vital to Russia in its efforts to reduce political and economic isolation. This research will examine how Russia has strategically shaped its foreign policy in the Persian Gulf, driven by converging interests in energy markets, significant investment by Gulf Cooperation Council member states, the need to escape political isolation, and the need to counter the Western maximum pressure campaign. It will also examine Russia’s strategies for managing existing challenges with regional states while expanding its economic and political ties with the Gulf monarchies. Furthermore, it acknowledges the existence of three perspectives – opportunity-based, threat-based, and gray-zone-based- on Russia’s active engagement in the Persian Gulf, particularly in matters that concern Iran’s national interests.
Research question: How has the Ukraine crisis influenced Russia's foreign policy in the Persian Gulf?
Research hypothesis: This research hypothesizes that the Ukrainian crisis, driven by Western economic sanctions, has led Russia to adopt a more active and participatory strategy in the Persian Gulf, integrating geoeconomic and geostrategic approaches.
Methodology and theoretical framework: This research used a qualitative approach drawing on library, internet, and interview sources. It applied Neo-Eurasianism to analyze Russian foreign policy in the Persian Gulf. Russian foreign policy has evolved since the collapse of the Soviet Union, shaped by the Kozyrev Doctrine, the Primakov Doctrine, and the Putin Doctrine. The Kozyrev Doctrine, adopted during Boris Yeltsin's first term, defined Russia's identity as a new liberal democracy and market economy aligned with a Western-oriented system. Andrei Kozyrev, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister under Yeltsin, emphasized that rejoining the West was a "return to civilization" to support Russia's transition to democracy and a free market economy. However, the so-called Atlantic orientation in foreign policy faced challenges in domestic politics. The shift toward Neo-Eurasianism was marked by the emergence of the Primakov Doctrine. Yevgeny Primakov became Russia's Foreign Minister in 1996 and served as Prime Minister from 1998 to 1999, until his successor, Vladimir Putin. The Primakov Doctrine represented a serious attempt to restore lost international prestige and standing while countering American unilateralism. This policy was consolidated when Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000. Neo-Eurasianism has specific features in Russian foreign policy, including “nationalism,” “geopolitics,” and “realism.”
Results and discussion: 1. Tensions and conflicts between Russia and the United States, along with the Western bloc, are a major factor driving the Kremlin's interest in escalating its activities in the Persian Gulf region. Strong, constructive relations with the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and an active, participatory presence in the region help Russia avoid international isolation.
2. The effects of Western sanctions against Russia are among the main factors shaping Russia's presence and cooperation with the regional governments in the Persian Gulf.
3. Protecting the interests of Russian companies operating in the energy sector through close cooperation with major oil and gas exporters in the region.
Conclusion: The outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the widespread Western sanctions against Russia have had a significant impact on the country's foreign policy in the Persian Gulf region. In this context, Russia has sought to strengthen its relations with the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states and to develop a partnership-based strategy in the region. The Persian Gulf region is important to Russia because of its strategic geopolitical and economic location, especially in the energy sector. The country has sought to build closer ties with countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, to secure its economic and political interests. Changes in Russian foreign policy in the Persian Gulf include increased economic cooperation, joint investments, and security engagement. Russia is also seeking to strengthen its position as a key player in the global energy arena, and cooperation with oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf could help Russia achieve its main goal of managing energy markets. After examining and presenting the three existing perspectives on expanding relations between Russia and the Persian Gulf sheikhdoms, it seems necessary to strike a balance between these two approaches.