Introduction: The geo-economy of Central Eurasia is one of the most contested geo-economic spaces in the world. Due to its rich energy resources, strategic minerals, and important role in some of the world’s supply chains, Central Eurasia plays a decisive role in major global geo-economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the war in Ukraine, the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus have changed the geo-economic characteristics of the region by imposing new trends. This situation has had a more profound impact on landlocked Central Asia, which has exacerbated its geo-economic constraints. Accordingly, the region is experiencing new geo-economic approaches that could lead to a redefinition of the geo-economic interests of various actors.
Research question: How do new trends in Central Eurasian geo-economy affect the prospects for Greater Central Asia?
Research hypothesis: New trends in the geo-economy of Central Eurasia, such as the redefinition of the transit network and the rebalancing of the distribution of energy resources, have led to the expansion of the geo-economy of Central Asia, connecting this region inter-regionally with South Asia to the south and the South Caucasus to the west.
Methodology and theoretical framework: Process tracing is the main method used in this paper. This method is often used for case studies based on qualitative data. More precisely, process tracing is understood as the analysis of evidence related to processes, sequences, and linkages in a case study or for purposes related to developing or testing hypotheses about causal mechanisms that may causally explain the phenomenon. The development of a cumulative theory of social sciences and the theoretical explanation of individual cases are, or rather should be, the main goals of process tracing. The theoretical framework uses a combination of two theoretical concepts: geo-economy and inter-regional linkages. In this combined understanding, it has been concluded that the foreign policy behavior pattern of countries that have geo-economic constraints, such as being landlocked, emerges in the form of geo-economic expansion, which leads to strengthening regional integration and developing inter-regional ties.
Results and discussion: The geo-economy of Central Eurasia has experienced various developments in the decade of 2014–2024. The Russia-Ukraine war, which led to sanctions against Russia’s geo-economy, geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus as a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh war since 2020, the withdrawal of international coalition forces from Afghanistan, and the rise of the Taliban, and finally, developments in Russia's Arctic policy are among the important factors. These developments have led to the emergence of new Central Eurasian trends. The first trend is the redefinition of the transit network in Central Eurasia. This process occurred in four practical directions: first, sanctions-related restrictions on Russian, Central Eurasian, and international supply chains; second, the development of southern routes by defining new initiatives for Afghanistan and the South Caucasus; third, the creation of alternatives to East-West routes centered on the Middle Corridor; and fourth, the transformation of North-South routes (North-South Corridor to the Arctic).
The second trend is “rebalancing of energy resources distribution,” which has been realized in three directions: first, the strategic shift of Russia’s energy export routes to the south and east; second, Europe’s focus on securing energy from non-Russian Central Eurasian sources; and third, the diversification of Central Eurasian energy export routes to reduce dependence on Russia. These trends have affected the evolution of Greater Central Asia in three general directions. The first direction is geo-economic expansion southward with a focus on connectivity to South Asia. This geo-economic expansion has been developed through projects such as TRACECA, the Trans-Afghan corridor, the TAPI pipeline, the CASA-1000 power transmission project, and the development of the Afghan railway network.
The second path is the geo-economic expansion of Central Asia to the west and its connection to the South Caucasus. Currently, this idea is being evolved through the development of the Middle Corridor, the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, and the rerouting of Kazakh oil exports through the BTC pipeline. The third path is the geo-economic expansion to the east, which is less developed than the other two paths. This idea, known as CAMCA, envisages the geo-economic connection of Central Asia, Mongolia, the South Caucasus, and Afghanistan within the framework of an inter-regional mechanism. Although these three paths are conceptually separate, in practice, and in the behavioral model of the Central Asian countries, they are pursued in parallel but unbalanced ways.
Conclusion: Central Asia's geo-economic expansion has gained more supporters within global supply chains, such as China and Europe, and has also formed an interactive mechanism with peripheral regions. On another level, the interests of regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, India, and Pakistan are also affected by these geo-economic trends and, in some cases, will have a significant impact on the prospects of Greater Central Asia. In such circumstances, the impact of the strategic interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has Central Asia and Central Eurasia in its neighborhood, is inevitable. The dynamics of interaction and conflict are such that in some regions, Iran's geo-economic interests are undermined and ignored, which can even have geopolitical consequences against Iran; on the other hand, it defines new capabilities and opportunities in other areas.
In this framework, Iran, as a neighbor with inescapable historical, infrastructural, and geographical ties with Central Asia and Central Eurasia, should be an effective actor in this process of geo-economic evolution. This influence will be possible through the development of inter-regional linkages focused on energy, transit, and trade, which will lead to enhanced geo-economic interdependence. At the same time, Iran can define an independent initiative alongside or in contrast to existing initiatives for the transformation of Greater Central Asia pursued by major powers. Accordingly, Iran has high capabilities to play an important role in geo-economic expansion to the south and can even define strategic interests along the eastern routes. However, the geo-economic expansion of Greater Central Asia to the west, centered on Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus, is not compatible with Iran's interests and could even create geopolitical challenges in the future as a result of the inter-regional geo-economic linkages. It should be noted that these inter-regional geo-economic linkages will also have the potential to change patterns of friendship and hostility and new political mechanisms.