Introduction: The geo-economy of Central Eurasia is one of the most contested geo-economic spaces in the world. Because of its rich energy resources, strategic minerals, and important role in global supply chains, Central Eurasia plays a decisive role in major global geo-economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the war in Ukraine, the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus have shifted the region's geo-economic landscape by introducing new trends. This situation has had a more profound impact on landlocked Central Asia, exacerbating its geo-economic constraints. Accordingly, the region is experiencing new geo-economic approaches that could redefine the geo-economic interests of various actors.
Research question: How do emerging trends in Central Eurasia's geo-economy affect the prospects for Greater Central Asia?
Research hypothesis: New trends in the geo-economy of Central Eurasia, such as the redefinition of the transit network and the rebalancing of energy resource distribution, have led to the expansion of the geo-economy of Central Asia, connecting this region inter-regionally with South Asia to the south and the South Caucasus to the west.
Methodology and theoretical framework: Process tracing is the main method used in this paper. This method is often used for qualitative case studies. More precisely, process tracing involves analyzing evidence related to processes, sequences, and linkages in a case study, or to developing or testing hypotheses about causal mechanisms that may explain the phenomenon. Process tracing aims to develop a cumulative theory in the social sciences and to explain individual cases theoretically. The theoretical framework combines two concepts: geo-economy and inter-regional linkages. In this combined understanding, it has been concluded that the foreign policy behavior pattern of countries with geo-economic constraints, such as being landlocked, emerges as geo-economic expansion, which strengthens regional integration and develops inter-regional ties.
Results and discussion: The geo-economy of Central Eurasia has experienced various developments in the decade of 2014–2024. The Russia-Ukraine war, which led to sanctions against Russia’s geo-economy; geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus as a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh war since 2020; the withdrawal of international coalition forces from Afghanistan; the rise of the Taliban; and, finally, developments in Russia's Arctic policy are among the important factors. These developments have led to new Central Eurasian trends. The first trend is the redefinition of Central Eurasia's transit network. This process occurred in four practical directions: first, sanctions-related restrictions on Russian, Central Eurasian, and international supply chains; second, the development of southern routes by defining new initiatives for Afghanistan and the South Caucasus; third, the creation of alternatives to East-West routes centered on the Middle Corridor; and fourth, the transformation of North-South routes (North-South Corridor to the Arctic).
The second trend is “rebalancing of energy resources distribution,” which has taken three forms: first, Russia’s strategic shift in energy export routes to the south and east; second, Europe’s focus on securing energy from non-Russian Central Eurasian sources; and third, the diversification of Central Eurasian energy export routes to reduce dependence on Russia. These trends have shaped Greater Central Asia's evolution in three general directions. The first is geo-economic expansion southward, with a focus on connectivity to South Asia. This expansion has been advanced through projects such as TRACECA, the Trans-Afghan corridor, the TAPI pipeline, the CASA-1000 power transmission project, and the development of the Afghan railway network.
The second path is Central Asia's westward geo-economic expansion and its connection to the South Caucasus. This idea is currently being developed through the Middle Corridor, the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, and the rerouting of Kazakh oil exports through the BTC pipeline. The third path is eastward geo-economic expansion, which is less developed than the other two. This idea, known as CAMCA, envisages a geo-economic connection among Central Asia, Mongolia, the South Caucasus, and Afghanistan through an inter-regional mechanism. Although these three paths are conceptually separate, in practice and in the behavioral model of the Central Asian countries, they are pursued in parallel but in an unbalanced manner.
Conclusion: Central Asia's geo-economic expansion has gained more supporters within global supply chains, including China and Europe, and has also formed an interactive mechanism with peripheral regions. On another level, the interests of regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, India, and Pakistan are affected by these geo-economic trends and, in some cases, will significantly shape the prospects of Greater Central Asia. In such circumstances, the impact of the strategic interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which borders Central Asia and Central Eurasia, is inevitable. The dynamics of interaction and conflict mean that, in some regions, Iran's geo-economic interests are undermined and ignored, which can even have geopolitical consequences for Iran; in other areas, they create new capabilities and opportunities.
In this framework, Iran, as a neighbor with inescapable historical, infrastructural, and geographical ties to Central Asia and Central Eurasia, should be an effective actor in this geo-economic evolution. This influence will be possible through the development of inter-regional linkages focused on energy, transit, and trade, leading to enhanced geo-economic interdependence. At the same time, Iran can define an independent initiative alongside or in contrast to existing initiatives for the transformation of Greater Central Asia pursued by major powers. Accordingly, Iran has strong capacity to play an important role in geo-economic expansion to the south and can even define strategic interests along eastern routes. However, the geo-economic expansion of Greater Central Asia to the west, centered on Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus, is not compatible with Iran's interests and could create future geopolitical challenges due to inter-regional geo-economic linkages. These inter-regional geo-economic linkages could also change patterns of friendship and hostility and create new political mechanisms.