Introduction: The US-Israeli war against Iran placed the People’s Republic of China in a highly complex strategic environment that required balancing multiple and competing foreign policy objectives. On the one hand, Iran is an important strategic partner for China in energy security, regional connectivity, and cooperation in multilateral institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. On the other hand, China has extensive economic ties with the Persian Gulf states and significant trade relations with Israel, while also seeking to avoid direct strategic confrontation with the United States. This situation has created a fundamental dilemma for Beijing: how to maintain its strategic partnerships, protect its expanding global interests, and maintain its image as a responsible great power without engaging directly in military conflict.
This situation makes China’s response an important case for examining how emerging great powers define and execute their international roles amid systemic instability. This article explains China’s foreign policy behavior during the US-Israeli war against Iran through the analytical framework of Role Theory. This study argues that, rather than interpreting China's behavior solely through realist power calculations or constructivist approaches to identity, role theory offers a more comprehensive framework for explaining how national role concepts, external role expectations, role status, and role performance shape foreign policy behavior. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between China’s perceived international identity, the expectations of various international actors, and the foreign policy actions taken during this conflict. Specifically, it examines how Beijing reconciled its strategic partnership with Iran, its economic interdependence with Middle Eastern actors, and its long-term goal of avoiding confrontation with the United States, while simultaneously seeking to enhance its leadership credibility in the Global South.
Research question: How did China balance its competing strategic interests during the US-Israeli war against Iran, and what implications does this approach have for China’s international role and the evolving global order?
Research hypothesis: This paper assumes that China has adopted a strategic hedging strategy during the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Methodology: The study uses qualitative research and a process-tracing approach to investigate the causal mechanisms related to China’s national role concept, role expectations, role status, and role performance.
Results and discussion: The findings suggest that China’s behavior during the conflict cannot be fully explained by traditional realist assumptions about the balance of power or economic interdependence. Instead, its behavior reflects a coherent and consistent pattern of Strategic risk hedging within the context of an evolving concept of national role.
Beijing has consistently opposed military escalation, emphasized sovereignty and territorial integrity, called for a ceasefire, supported diplomatic negotiations, and criticized actions that could destabilize the region. At the same time, China avoided direct military intervention or explicit security commitments that could lead to confrontation with the United States.
This combination of diplomatic support, strategic restraint, and economic continuity represents a conscious effort to maintain strategic flexibility while enhancing China’s international legitimacy. Thus, China sought to maintain its strategic partnership with Iran without transforming it into a direct military commitment. The analysis also suggests that China’s behavior should not be interpreted simply as a short-term response to a regional crisis, but rather as part of a broader strategy aimed at expanding China’s normative influence, safeguarding energy security, protecting economic networks associated with the Belt and Road Initiative, and strengthening political partnerships across the Global South.
From the Role Theory perspective, China’s behavior reflects the interaction between its national role and external role expectations. Beijing’s self-concept as a responsible great power encouraged it to emphasize sovereignty, territorial integrity, diplomacy, and regional stability. At the same time, expectations from Iran, Arab countries, developing countries, and other international actors created competitive pressures that required China to carefully regulate its behavior.
China’s approach can therefore be seen as a form of role negotiation. Beijing sought to show it could help manage regional conflict and defend the principles of international order without shouldering the military burden or adopting the confrontational patterns traditionally associated with hegemonic leadership.
Through this approach, China is gradually seeking to redefine its international role from a primarily economic power to a responsible global actor capable of helping manage regional conflicts while maintaining its strategic independence.
Conclusion: The US-Israeli war against Iran is not only a regional military confrontation but also a key arena for the realignment of international legitimacy, power, and leadership in the evolving global order. China’s strategic hedging enabled Beijing to protect its national interests, maintain regional partnerships, enhance its diplomatic credibility among developing countries, and strengthen its role as an increasingly influential leader in the Global South.
The findings suggest that China sought to balance several competing goals: maintaining its strategic partnership with Iran, protecting economic and energy interests, sustaining relations with other regional players, avoiding confrontation with the United States, and enhancing its international legitimacy. More broadly, this study suggests that Role Theory offers a valuable analytical framework for understanding how emerging powers navigate systemic transition, competing role expectations, and intensifying geopolitical competition. China’s behavior during this conflict illustrates how an emerging great power can use strategic flexibility and role negotiation to pursue national interests while attempting to alter perceptions of its international role.
Ultimately, China’s approach to strategic hedging seeks to combine strategic pragmatism with an evolving concept of responsible global leadership. Its behavior during the conflict therefore offers important insights into the shifting patterns of power, diplomacy, and leadership in the emerging global order.