Introduction: The South Caucasus is a geopolitically important region located at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Throughout history, its unique geography, ethnic and religious diversity, natural resources, and proximity to energy routes have attracted regional and transregional powers. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus entered a phase of structural instability and complex geopolitical rivalries, manifested in conflicts such as the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan. After the 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and the subsequent tripartite ceasefire agreement between Yerevan, Baku, and Moscow, Article 9 of the agreement mentioned the Zangezur Corridor. According to this paragraph, a transport route connecting the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory was to be created, with Russian border forces overseeing its security. This corridor, which is still incomplete legally, politically, and operationally, has profound and multifaceted implications for the regional balance of power. One of the countries most directly affected by this development is the Islamic Republic of Iran. On the one hand, Iran shares a short but strategically important border with Armenia, which provides land access to the North Caucasus, Eurasia, and Europe. On the other hand, creating the Zangezur Corridor without considering Tehran's interests could weaken Iran's geopolitical position in the region and jeopardize its national interests in transportation, border security, transit economy, and political influence. This article examines the implications of the Zangezur Corridor for Iran’s national interests in the South Caucasus.
Research question: What impact does the Zangezur Corridor have on Iran’s national interests in the South Caucasus?
Research hypothesis: The creation of the Zangezur Corridor has negative economic, political, and geopolitical consequences for the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran-including geopolitical impoverishment, reduced bargaining power vis-à-vis Turkey and Azerbaijan, and a threat to the regional balance of power to Iran’s detriment in the South Caucasus.
Methodology and theoretical framework: Using a qualitative, descriptive-analytical approach grounded in balance-of-power theory, this study examines the impact of the Zangezur Corridor on Iran's national interests in the South Caucasus.
Results and discussion: The Zangezur region, located at the crossroads of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Iran, occupies a strategically significant position in the South Caucasus. The proposed Zangezur Corridor, a vital link between Anatolia, Central Asia, and the wider Eurasian space, will connect major east-west and north-south transportation networks. While Turkey and Azerbaijan strongly support the project, Iran and Armenia view it with concern. Tehran fears the corridor will weaken its geopolitical influence by reducing its connection with Armenia, limiting its role in regional transit routes, and increasing Turkey and Azerbaijan's influence in accessing European markets. Russia supports reopening transport routes but seeks to maintain security oversight to preserve its influence and prevent excessive Turkish influence in the region. The findings show that this corridor poses significant challenges to Iran’s regional position by reducing its bargaining power vis-à-vis Turkey and Azerbaijan, strengthening Russia’s geopolitical presence, and requiring Tehran to adopt new strategic responses to protect its national interests.
Conclusion: The Zangazur Corridor is a major geopolitical development that could reshape power dynamics and transit networks in the South Caucasus. Supported by Turkey and Azerbaijan, the project may weaken Iran's geopolitical and geoeconomic position by reducing its role as a regional transit hub and limiting its influence in regional affairs. The corridor could also raise security concerns by potentially disrupting Iran’s border connection with Armenia and increasing the presence of foreign powers. Recent regional realignments have created favorable conditions for its implementation. As a result, Iran must strengthen diplomacy, develop alternative transit routes, and expand regional cooperation to protect its strategic interests.